Iran's president did not accept Foreign Minister Javad Zarif's resignation, but if he had, it would have had significant implications for the country's politics and foreign policy. Zarif's decision could be part of a political ploy designed to push back against his rivals and strengthen his ministry's role in key foreign policy matters. Up until this point, Iranian foreign policy has held steady, but if hard-liners get their way and supplant more moderate figures like Zarif, that could change.Confusion reigned in Tehran following the surprise resignation of Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif late Feb. 25. The decision, which he announced on Instagram, came a day after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad visited Tehran, apparently without Zarif's knowledge. Zarif noted Feb. 26 he was quitting in protest, in part to "protect the integrity" of Iran's Foreign Ministry, which he added should "return to its rightful place" in foreign policy.
The Big Picture
While the United States and other Western powers enact more sanctions on Iran in a bid to force Tehran to alter its behavior, a domestic power struggle is brewing within the Iranian government. One major aspect of that fight centers on how Iran should negotiate with the West. Longtime Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif's resignation has implications not just for that internal power struggle, but also for the major question of how Iran will interact with the wider world.
Zarif's announcement has sparked political jockeying in Iran, with many lobbying for him to remain in his position. The Iranian Foreign Ministry initially said President Hassan Rouhani had refused to accept Zarif's resignation; indeed, Rouhani published a letter on Feb. 27 in which he rejected the minister's decision. In another Instagram post on Feb. 27, Zarif thanked Iranians for their support and reiterated that he sought to protect the Foreign Ministry. Zarif has since been continuing his duties as foreign minister.
Zarif is popular in Iran — more so than Rouhani — according to available polling data. His resignation put that support in the spotlight Feb. 26, when more than 160 members of parliament wrote a letter to Rouhani demanding Zarif be allowed to remain in office. Zarif's attempt to quit has significant implications for Iranian politics, which are riven with disagreements over the best means of managing Iran's economic and diplomatic woes.
Implications for the JCPOA
When he became foreign minister in 2013, Zarif took the lead in negotiations with the West over Tehran's atomic program, a process which culminated in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iranian nuclear deal. This was Zarif's high-water mark. But since the Trump administration withdrew from the JCPOA in May 2018, Iran's hard-liners have pinned much of the blame for Iran's increasing diplomatic isolation and economic decline on Zarif and Rouhani, seeking to undermine each of them at every opportunity.
The al-Assad meeting might have pushed Zarif past the breaking point by exposing the full extent of his marginalization as hard-line conservatives worked to take over Iran's foreign policy.
Zarif and the Foreign Ministry have kept busy for the last 10 months in an effort to obtain European support for Iran in the JCPOA framework. The minister, however, has encountered two significant setbacks in the last month. While France, Germany and the United Kingdom did establish a payment mechanism that would allow Iran to partially skirt U.S. sanctions, they attached two conditions. First, they called on Iran to adhere to Financial Action Task Force (FATF) standards on fighting money laundering and terrorism financing. Second, they called on Iran to come to the table to discuss ballistic missiles. To Iran's hard-liners, each of these conditions is unacceptable. Meanwhile, the al-Assad meeting might have pushed Zarif past the breaking point by exposing the full extent of his marginalization as hard-line conservatives worked to take over Iran's foreign policy.
What to Watch for
Some have speculated that Zarif's resignation on Instagram — instead of via a formal resignation letter — represented a political ploy to push back against his rivals and strengthen the ministry's role in key foreign policy matters. While Iran's hard-line conservatives have called for a more confrontational stance toward the United States, there is a broad consensus across the Iranian political spectrum that Tehran should continue to stick to the figurative moral high ground and try to engage with the global system beyond the United States, such as with Europe. This has been evident in attempts by some in Iran to adhere to FATF standards despite the U.S. departure from the JCPOA. If Zarif manages to strengthen his position through his attempted resignation, this will indicate that those moderate voices remain strong and that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei continues to support them.
Zarif's actions have drawn attention to significant political infighting behind the scenes in Tehran, with the direction of Iranian policy toward the United States and the West hanging in the balance. As economic pressure on Iran will ratchet up over the next quarter due to increased sanctions on Iranian oil exports (the waivers that the United States granted to a select group of countries to continue importing Iranian oil will expire May 4), these divisions will continue to deepen. Up until this point, Iranian foreign policy has held steady in anticipation of the European mechanism to facilitate nondollar trade with Iran, known as the Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges. At the same time, Tehran has maintained its foreign policy course pending the results of elections in the United States and at home. But should hard-liners get their way and supplant more moderate figures like Zarif, that steady course could end.