After Trump Killed TPP, is Japan-EU FTA Imminent?

EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom and Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida may have an FTA soon.

Given its recent efforts to join the ill-fated Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Japan actually has an effective grand total of zero [0] FTAs involving more than one country. Yes, it does have one with ASEAN, but it's actually on top of a series of bilateral "economic partnership agreements" with each Southeast Asian member country (except for later accession countries Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar). TPP was to be Japan's first real foray into a plutilateral FTA, but Trump put paid to that.

Yet, emboldened by its adventure negotiating TPP and wanting more than the status quo, Japan is contemplating a deal with the EU. In fact, it may be inked as soon as tomorrow at a Japan-EU summit prior to the Hamburg G-20 gathering on Friday. The largest bugaboo with Japan and multilateral deals has always been agriculture. Why does Japan have so many bilateral deals with ASEAN member countries? It was largely to devise agricultural protections specific to each trading partner.

What's interesting about the mooted Japan-EU FTA are twofold: Once more, it would be Japan's first honest-to-goodness plutilateral FTA. Second, this deal would involve another entity known for agricultural protectionism in the EU. Is the latter an insurmountable obstacle? We will soon find out...

The European Union and Japan expect to commit to signing a free trade deal on Thursday, the EU said, in what both see as a push back against a feared U.S. turn toward protectionism under President Donald Trump.

Confirming on Tuesday that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe would meet heads of EU institutions in Brussels on the eve of a G20 summit with Trump and other world leaders in Germany, the European Council said: "Leaders are expected to announce a political agreement on the EU-Japan free trade agreement."

That would be short of a final accord ironing out all the commercial intricacies between two of the world's biggest economies and EU officials said on Tuesday that some key issues still needed to be settled before Thursday's EU-Japan summit.

However, confirming Abe's attendance is a sign of confidence that a deal will be ready for his signature and also puts pressure on trade negotiators to secure at least outline agreements on opening up each other's markets, including in the trickiest areas such as Japanese cars and European farm produce.

This Eurasian activity contrasts with the proclivities of a certain American stinker:

Both sides, having seen Trump pull back from free trade relationships, are keen to show they remain committed to removing barriers they say hamper growth.

"It is important for us to wave the flag of free trade in response to global moves toward protectionism by quickly concluding the free trade agreement with Europe," Abe told ministers at a meeting on Tuesday about the EU negotiations.

"This agreement is also important for our growth strategy. We will negotiate with all our energy until the very end to achieve the best deal for Japan."

Abe will meet European Council President Donald Tusk, who speaks for the 28 EU national leaders, and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, the bloc's executive head.

Juncker's Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom was in Japan at the weekend and said after her talks that she was "quite confident" that a broad agreement could be announced on Thursday. EU officials had said that Abe would only visit Brussels if both sides were certain that the political agreement would be signed.

Malmstrom said: "You can do good, fair, transparent and sustainable trade agreements where you win and I win, and not the American view, which seems to be, 'You lose and I win'."

Abe, Tusk and Juncker will go on to Hamburg on Friday for the G20 summit

Take that, Trumpie! Europeans and Japanese do not take the trade realm as a winner-takes-all arena. As I mentioned, agriculture has been a sticking point for the Japanese negotiators:

European officials have been pushing for a reduction in Japanese tariffs on cheese and agriculture imports that are as high as 30 percent in return for phasing out tariffs on Japanese autos and auto parts.

This tradeoff initially met strong resistance, because some politicians want to protect Japan's dwindling dairy industry. However, Malmstrom expressed confidence that both sides have overcome this problem and can reach a deal.

"We've made meaningful progress, but there are still important points remaining," Kishida told reporters.

Some perspective is useful here. Actually, the Japan-EU deal has been under negotiation for nearly half a decade. My guess is that Trumpism was a spur to it. While the US has begun looking inward, many other countries still see free trade as beneficial. Although there are of course longstanding sticking points like the ever-bothersome agriculture, those committed will find a way to work around such obstacles. In order not to foster a wider climate of protectionism, some gesture was necessary.

So, here we are. By contrast, the Trump administration may announce steel tariffs hitting several G-20 countries in time for the Hamburg meeting. Same gathering; entirely different messages.