On 11 September three security organisations (CIS, CSTO and SCO) will hold a meeting in Minsk, Belarus. Subjects of these talks will be on how to further strengthen security and stability within these alliances as well as on regional and global levels. It is also expected that these three organisations will take the opportunity to streamline their agendas and cooperate more efficiently in the future. The meeting also holds the possibility to transfer responsibilities away from the CIS and CSTO to the SCO, thus creating a more powerful economic, political and military alliance for Asia.
Russia is currently a member of these three security organisations:
- The Commonwealth of independent States (CIS)
- The Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO)
- Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)
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| The current size of the SCO alliance. India and Pakistan will become full members in 2017. |
Commonwealth of Independent States
The CIS was formed after the breakup of the Soviet Union. The organisation has few powers that transcend the state level and is more a symbolic organization, having coordinating powers in the field of trade, finance, law-making, and security. The CIS has nine members and is more focused on the Caucasus and Central Asia. The organization is more focused on economic issues and less on political and military ones. Aside from creating a free trade agreement the CIS has made little notable contributions for its members. The CIS has been more and more surpassed in recent history by the CSTO.
Collective Security Treaty Organisation
The CSTO was originally founded in 1992 by six members of the CIS. The CSTO then continued to enlarge and became a military alliance in 2002. As of the moment the CSTO holds the following members: Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. All these members are part of the former Soviet Union and half of them are in Central Asia meaning that the main focus of the CSTO is also aimed at security and stability in military affairs in Central Asia.
The CSTO charter states that the participating members will abstain from the use of military forces against each other, will not join other military alliances and an act of aggression against one members will be perceived as an act of aggression against all members. This last statement mimics NATO’s Article 5 on collective defence. The CSTO is thus mainly a military organisation, on that is Russia’s version of NATO. As a military alliance the CSTO holds regular military exercises frequently ranging between 4.000 to 10.000 troops involved.
As of 4 February 20009 it also employs a Collective Rapid Response Force (KSOR). The force is intended to be used to repulse military aggression, conduct anti-terrorist operations, fight transnational crime and drug trafficking, and neutralize the effects of natural disasters.
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
Compared with the CIS and the CSTO the SCO holds more potential. The SCO was founded in 2001 as a political, economic and military organisation and encompasses thus a bigger platform then the CIS or CSTO. The founding members are: China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. India and Pakistan are on the path of becoming full members, singing the treaty for membership in Tashkent on 24 June 2016. It is expected that India and Pakistan will become full members in 2017.
The SCO has a main focus that is on Asia itself and not on Europe, making it very different from the CIS and CSTO. It is also important to note that Russia is not the leading member in the SCO but has to share the leading role with China. Admitting India in the SCO will also further diminish Russia’s role as a big leading member.
The SCO is so far been centred on its member nation’s security-related concerns and identified the main treats as terrorism, separatism and extremism. Internal stability within Central Asia thus seems to be the main focus and the SCO so far has no intentions to intervene abroad the territory of its members. Its military cooperation has been expanding however with joint military exercises, intelligence sharing and counterterrorism.
Counter-NATO
The summit on 11 September in Minsk, Belarus will be the first time that the CIS, CSTO and the SCO will meet together. It is expected that these three organisations will take the opportunity to streamline their agenda’s and possibly even redistribute their responsibilities.
The summit will also allow the three organisations to restructure themselves and possibly create one single organisation. In the past there were already statements that the CSTO should be integrated in SCO. Should the CSTO be integrated in the SCO then the SCO will gain a larger military role. Such integration would transform the SCO into a full military organisation, one that could form a counterweight to NATO.
But a full military alliance under the SCO will not immediately form a threat to NATO. The SCO will remain focused on Asia while NATO has a focus on the defence of North America and Europe. This different focus will prevent them from being rivals as long as these two organisations remain defensive. The only wildcard will be the current tensions between Russia and NATO. Russia’s actions in Ukraine and the Crimea have created a lot of mistrust with Eastern European leaders who fear that Russia might look to expand their sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. NATO’s reassurance to Eastern Europe consists of deployment of troops and large military exercises but this is being interpreted by Russia that NATO is looking actively for a conflict. Mutual mistrust will exist in the coming years and troop levels will continue to rise in Eastern Europe. The main question that has to be asked is whether the other SCO members will also place troops in Western Russia to create deterrence against NATO in the same way NATO builds it deterrence against Russia.
The Russian perspective
The political and military landscape in Asia will become more streamlined should the CIS and CSTO be incorporated into the SCO. Stability in Central Asia, one of the regions Russia regards as its sphere of influence, will benefit Russia and allows it to divert its attention to other regions. There is however the fact that the SCO will have three big players namely Russia, China and in the future India and this gives Russia little political power to dominate the SCO. Currently it is China that has been the major force within the SCO.
Stability in Central Asia allows Russia to focus on other regions such as Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Russia can also benefit from the prospect of a SCO with a larger military role. Should the SCO develop itself in an organisation that mimics NATO then Russia will have powerful countries that can help form a deterrent against what it perceives an aggressive NATO seeking to push Russia out of Eastern Europe. This will open the door for Russia to act more boldly against NATO, knowing that it can fall back on the SCO for the necessary backing.
It seems unlikely that the SCO and NATO would clash as both organisations have a primary focus on different regions in the world as explained earlier. But closer ties within the SCO, especially on the military level, could see the prospect of SCO soldiers being deployed on Russian soil to form a deterrent against NATO. Large scale exercises with different countries can also help to transform the Russian army into a more capable and experienced force and the sharing of intelligence and military technology will also be beneficial for the Russian Armed Forces.
Conclusion
The meeting in Minsk on 11 September has a lot of potential. The possibility exists that the CIS and CSTO will transfer responsibilities towards the SCO and thus creates a powerful military alliance that could form a counter balance to NATO as the leading military alliance in the world. Streamlining the agendas of the CIS, CSTO and SCO will also contribute into a more stable Asia, especially Central Asia.
Russia could benefit from a stronger and more stable SCO as it will stabilise Central Asia, allowing Russia to divert its attention on other regions such as Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Should the SCO evolve into a NATO like organisation then Russia could use its membership in the SCO as a deterrent against what it perceives as an aggressive NATO. Either way a closer cooperation within the SCO on the military level will benefit the Russian Armed Forces since it offers more training capabilities, the sharing of intelligence and the transfer of military technology.
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