An important factor in the overall security situation of the Baltic Region is the political position of both Sweden and Finland. Since the Cold War both countries have remained in a neutral position, siding neither with Russia or NATO. Only until recently do these two countries realize that a position of neutrality becomes harder to maintain.
Finland’s choice for maintaining neutral is easy to understand as the country shares a large uninhabited border with Russia that is impossible to defend and leaves too much room for Russian troops to infiltrate in a surprise attack. Siding with NATO would thus create more security problems for Finland compared to a neutral position. Sweden on the other hand is traditionally more focused on internal affairs and has always been a neutral country in recent history. Both countries are however realizing that neutrality under the current circumstances might not be the solution to steer clear of a possible conflict in the Baltic Region.
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| The Foreign Ministers of Finland and Sweden - Timo Soini and Margot Wallström - agreeing on a united line on discussions with Russia |
The main reason why neutrality is not an option lies in Russia’s behaviour in the last decade. Russia has become more assertive and is seeking to restore its lost influence as a superpower, or at least as a major regional power in Europe. Russia has already undertaken several military operations to strengthen its influence in the regions bordering the country. In August 2008 Russia and Georgia had a brief war over the territories of Abkhazia and South-Ossetia; both of these territories were part of Georgia. In 2014 Russia even went further and annexed the Crimea in Ukraine, a country that was neutral and balanced itself between Russia and the EU. This was followed by Russia support for pro-Russian separatists in Eastern Ukraine.
These actions lead to the fear that Russia might be making a military move against the Baltic States, a region that houses many ethnic Russians and have been part of the Russian Empire before World War I and were incorporated in the Soviet Union at the start of World War II until they regained their independence when the Cold War ended and the Soviet Union fell apart.
It seems unlikely that Russia might start a war or conflict in the Baltic States. All three Baltic States are NATO members and Russia does not have the conventional military capabilities needed to fight a war against NATO. But Russia has been keen to make moves against neutral countries and in the case of Georgia and Ukraine these moves were made to prevent these countries from joining NATO.
Both Sweden and Finland do not have the desire to join NATO and popular support for joining the alliance is lacking in these countries. This does not stop Russia from intimidating these countries. Mock attacks against the Stockholm, the Swedish capital, under the guise of an aerial exercise as well as the sighting of an alleged Russian submarine in both Swedish and Finnish territorial waters make it clear that Russia is asserting its dominance over the Baltic Region and even neutral countries can see their airspace and territorial waters being used for Russia’s military games.
A Russian intervention in both Sweden and Finland is even more unlikely at this point then it is in the Baltic States. Still, Russia’s actions are a source of doubt in both Sweden and Finland who are now seeking on how to strengthen their position on the political level in order to keep Russia at bay. In the end this meant that Sweden and Finland are looking for a closer cooperation with NATO and even going as far as to change their status from neutral into non-aligned.
But even looking for closer ties with NATO is a big risk for Sweden and Finland. The current balance of power in the Baltic Region is in Russia’s favour but should Sweden and Finland actually join NATO then this balance will change dramatically. Both Sweden and Finland can bring military capabilities to the alliance that will aid significantly in the defence of the Baltic States. The Swedish Navy might not be as large as the Russian Baltic Fleet but it makes this shortcoming up with modern ships that have a qualitative advantage. Both Sweden and Finland also have a capable Air Force that once deployed in the Baltic States, can gain air superiority for NATO in the immediate opening hours of a possible conflict with Russia.
Russia is well aware of the capabilities that Sweden and Finland can offer and how these capabilities will shift the balance of power against Russia. Swedish and Finnish neutrality thus serves the best interest for Russia and so Russia must make sure that Sweden and Finland remain truly neutral. So far Russia has been acting in the only way that it knows how to act by reminding Sweden and Finland that Russia is a powerful military force and that Russia has the political will to use this force if there are benefits.
Russia’s actions are however backfiring on these two nations. Mock air attacks and incursion of the territorial waters by submarine create a nervous situation. Also the fact that Russia has send spies to Sweden in order to monitor the pro-NATO debates and if possible undermine these debates are also more reasons for concern. It comes as no surprise that every provocative action made by Russia is increasing the popular demand to have better ties with NATO.
But this places Sweden and Finland in a dilemma. Remaining neutral gives no certainties and joining NATO will defiantly place these two countries against Russia. Sweden and Finland are thus looking in the first place to cooperate together, given their similar security situation. Already there are plans for these two countries to work closer on naval and aerial matters concerning the security of their nations but their cooperation is not at the same level as a full alliance.
Sweden and Finland are now coming to a point where they have to make a decision on how to proceed in the near future. Both countries have already making steps in closer ties but have so far been avoiding joining NATO. Closer cooperation gives these two countries more weight in the political debates as we can now observe in their mutual stance on Russia calling for a conference to discuss the overall security situation in the Baltic Region.
It should however be noted that within the mutual cooperation that it is Sweden who is in the lead. Sweden is thinking more seriously about its non-alignment stance and closer cooperation with NATO as the country is more targeted by Russian provocations in recent years. Finland on the other hand can at the moment tolerate a stance of neutrality. It is however expected that Finland will follow Sweden’s lead. Should Sweden choose for joining NATO then the general prediction is that Finland will immediately follow the Swedish example. Just how soon Sweden and Finland will choose for NATO will however depend a lot on the actions made by Russia in the Baltic Region.
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