On 8 and 9 July NATO will be holding another important summit at Warsaw, the capital of Poland. It is expected that the Warsaw summit will not only endorse the actions decided upon on the Wales summit in 2014 but also take new measures to further strengthen the NATO alliance and NATO’s position in Eastern Europe.
More troops for Eastern Europe
Already the plan for stationing more troops in Eastern Europe has become the central topic of this NATO summit. It is certain that NATO will approve stationing four multinational battalions, each of around 1.000 troops, in the three Baltic States and Poland. Already the leading nations of these multinational battalions are known: Germany will take the lead in Lithuania, Canada in Latvia, Great Britain in Estonia and the United States in Poland.
The multination battalions will strengthen NATO’s position in Eastern Europe with around 4.000 troops but already there is doubt about their true combat potential. Given the size of the Russian Armed Forces it is judged that the multinational battalions do not bring any real deterrence against Russia and their deployment is more a token symbol that reflects NATO’s stronger unity. What most people fail to see behind the numbers is the indirect deterrence of these troops. By stationing multinational battalions the chances of drawing in NATO partners at the start of any conflict in the Baltic Region has gone up.
Another important topic on the NATO Warsaw summit will be the evaluation of the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF). The need for the VJTF arose after the Russian annexation of Crimea, a military move that happened so fast that it caught NATO unprepared. The VJTF exist for the purpose to intervene at moment’s notice and deal with sudden threats and conflicts within NATO territory. Two years after its creation and several military exercises later it is time to make a first evaluation of the VJTF and decide to further enhance it.
Operation Anaconda 16 will also be one of the topics that will be mentioned. This large military exercise in Poland at the beginning of June was one of the largest military exercises held in recent years. The exercise was organised for the Polish Armed Forces but saw many other NATO members participate and train in force integration. The scenario resembles how currently a real conflict in Eastern Europe will happen, with Poland being the first to intervene and allied nations arriving later and integrating their units in the unfolding operations.
Southern Europe
While the main focus is without a doubt NATO’s position in Eastern Europe there will also be talks about the need for NATO in southern Europe. With Libya being a failed state and the on-going civil war in Syria there is a need to maintain a strong NATO presence in the Mediterranean to deal with the aftermath of these conflicts. Already NATO forces have been called upon to aid in the refugee crisis in this region and the possibility for NATO’s southern members to be forced to intervene in Libya remains a possibility.
At the same time there will be talks about the Black Sea. With Russia in possession of the Crimea the naval balance of forces has shifted in favour of the Russian Black Sea fleet. Russia makes no secret that its priorities are to increase the size of the Black Sea Fleet. NATO members such as Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania are expected to press their point of view when it comes to the security of the Black Sea and will call on other members to send in naval forces to bolster NATO’s maritime presence in this region in order to deter Russia.
Conclusion
The main focus of the Warsaw summit will be on the political and military situation in Eastern Europe and on how to deal with a more assertive and unpredictable Russia. It would however be wrong to state that it will deal only with Eastern Europe. The geopolitical situation around Europe will force NATO to look both to the east as to the south of Europe meaning that NATO will need to focus on two fronts.
This focus on two fronts will also put Eastern and Western Europe at odds. While Eastern Europe will push their agenda’s for having more NATO resources available to help defend their territory it will be Western Europe that will push for attention to the situation in the Mediterranean. This is understandable since Western Europe has been dealing with the fall-out of the conflicts in Libya and Syria that translated itself in mass migration towards Western Europa and several terrorist attacks executed by Islamic State.
While the focus will be on two topics the means available will not be impaired. The situation in Eastern Europe calls for more troops on land and air assets to assist them while the situation in the Mediterranean can be solved mainly by naval forces. This will allow Western Europe to engage themselves in both theatres.
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