The Swedish government has decided to maintain its non-aligned status and not make a formal bid to join NATO. The Swedish decision was made in order not to further antagonize Russia, according to the statements made by the Swedish defence minister Peter Hulqtvist.
Over the past months the Swedish government has gained more and more public support for joining NATO but after a meeting earlier this week the government made the announcement to remain non-aligned. Sweden fears that it would disrupt the already tense relations between Russia and the West when it joins NATO. Even though Sweden will remain non-aligned it nevertheless will keep strong ties with NATO. Sweden is aware that Russia’s foreign policy in recent years has changed and that Russian President Putin is not afraid to use military means to pursue political and territorial gains. To that end Sweden will maintain its current modernisation program for its armed forces but chooses not to further complicate the already tense relations with Russia.
Analysis
The fact that Sweden remains non-aligned was expected but is nevertheless a missed opportunity for NATO to gain a stronger defence position in the Baltic Region. Off all the countries in the Baltic Region it is Sweden that has the best equipped armed forces to confront and deter Russia. While Sweden might not have a large army it is a modern one and can use its technologic advantage over the Russian armed forces as a force multiplier.
We predicted earlier that if Sweden joins NATO that the balance of forces in the Baltic Region will shift favourably in favour of NATO. Sweden’s navy is capable of forming a counterweight to Russia’s Baltic Fleet based at kaliningrad while the Swedish air force with its modern Grippen interceptor aircraft would be capable to contest Russia’s air superiority over the Baltic States. With Sweden not planning not to join NATO the balance of forces and the strategic initiative remain with Russia.
It is important to note that Sweden has decided not to join NATO for now. Russia’s aggressive actions in the Baltic Region have caught the attention of the Swedish government and public. Russia’s mock bombing run on the capital Stockholm as well as frequent flights of Russian military aircraft without transponders are considered as dangerous and provocative by Sweden. The alleged Russian submarine in Swedish territorial waters in October 2014 convinced Sweden that it needs to be actively involved in the security issues of the Baltic Region.
Over the past years the public support for Sweden joining NATO has been rising just because of these Russian actions but it still has not reached a majority. It is possible that Sweden might eventually decide to work closer and closer with NATO and eventually join the alliance should Russia continue its hostile actions in the Baltic Region.
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