The Swedish state security police (SAPO) reported that the amount of Russian spies in Sweden has been increasing. Aside from this increase in spies there are also reports of Russian diplomats working hard to prevent Sweden from joining NATO. These activities indicate that Russia, despite being military occupied in Ukraine and Syria, has not lost its focus on the Baltic Region. Indeed, Russia seems to be working hard in order to maintain the advantage it has in this region and will do anything to maintain the current status-quo.
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| Russian spies entered Sweden often disguised as diplomats |
The increase in Russian spies has apparently been going on since last year. Of the 37 Russian diplomats who entered the country at least 10 of them were identified as GRU or SVP intelligence officers. Although these are the only numbers available we can already see that at least one out of four diplomats is tied to the Russian intelligence services.
These spies have already been spotted carrying out reconnaissance of civilian and military infrastructure. This should not come as a surprise since that is the job spies do but it does indicate that Russia wants to have a clear and up-to-date picture about the military situation of Sweden. Russian intelligence officers have also been reported to be present in debates and conferences and were trying to influence the Swedish stance about closer cooperation with NATO.
Russian diplomats and intelligence officers are also reported to seek closer cooperation and support with Swedish nationalist parties. This move also falls under the attempts to keep Sweden out of NATO. The Swedish governments over the past years has always been a centrum-leftist one so the support for nationalist parties is aimed to disturb the balance of power in parliament in order to keep Sweden occupied on internal issues, leaving less time and effort the parliament can spend on security issues. And while nationalist parties are normally to be found in favour for a stronger military they are also opposed to outside interference like the EU and NATO.
It is already well known that right and far right parties in Western Europa are opposed of the EU and sceptic about American interference in Europe. Both these issues play to the advantage of Russia. Seeing Russia supporting such parties in Sweden means that they seek to undermine coordination between Sweden and the EU and NATO.
Russia is thus seeking to prevent Sweden from either joining or even having closer ties to NATO in order to maintain the advantageous status-quo that it currently has in the Baltic Region. In recent years Russia tried to deter Sweden in an overt manner. Mock bombing runs against Stockholm, the alleged Russian submarine in Swedish waters, breaching Swedish airspace during an annual Swedish aerial exercise as well as practising an amphibious invasion of the island of Gotland are all examples of an aggressive Russia trying to deter Sweden not to take any action Russia might deem hostile. All that Russia accomplished by these provocations however is to increase the willingness of Sweden to develop closer ties with other countries in the region.
Sweden realizes that it can no longer back its neutrality with just words and is seeking protection against Russia. After the report of an alleged Russian submarine in Swedish water the Swedish government was fast to develop closer military ties with Finland, another neutral country in the Baltic Region. At home more and more people became favourable to the idea of Sweden joining NATO or at least have closer ties with the alliance.
Russia thus seeks to deter Sweden from joining NATO and seeing that its overt actions having the opposite effect it now went for a more covert approach by interfering in the debates and conferences. The timing of Russia interfering and the news that spies have been identified comes just two weeks before the Swedish parliamentary debate about ratifying the Host Nation Support Agreement on 25 May. Under this agreement NATO troops will be able to use Swedish territory more easily in the event of exercises or emergencies. While this is not the same as letting NATO in completely it is a step on closer cooperation between Sweden and NATO.
That Russia fears Sweden joining NATO makes sense. Though Sweden has only a small armed force it is a highly modern one and it challenges the Russian domination in the Baltic Region in the two key areas, naval and aerial. The Swedish navy might be small but its modern Visby class frigates and Gotland submarines are more than a match for their Russian counterparts. Also in the air the Russians might face the prospect of the small but modern and efficient Swedish Air Force that is composed of many Grippen interceptor aircraft.
Aside from Sweden there is also Finland, the other neutral country. Finland also fears the overt Russian aggressive military manoeuvres in the region. Already Finland is concerned about Russia’s militarisation of the Arctic Region that involves placing troops near the Finnish border in the Murmansk region. Finland and Sweden agreed to cooperate closer at the beginning of 2015 and both countries are in the process of seeking closer cooperation with NATO. Should Sweden tilt towards NATO it is expected that Finland will follow the Swedish example.
With Finland and Sweden in the NATO alliance the balance of powers in the Baltic Region will suffer a severe shift that will be disadvantageous for Russia. Not only will NATO naval forces gain new naval bases in Sweden and Finland, with the prospect of closing the Gulf of Finland and isolating Saint-Petersburg, it will also shift the aerial balance of power.
Sweden and Finland will complement each other with their air forces and could strengthen the Baltic Air Policing mission above the Baltic States. Sweden’s Grippen interceptors could deny Russian air supremacy in this region but also open the way for Finland’s F-18 Hornets to concentrate on air-to-ground missions. With the possibility of Russia invading the Baltic States this newly found aerial supremacy by NATO could be a serious deterrent against any Russian military adventurism in the Baltic States.
