NATO and Russia are scheduled to hold new talks in Brussels on Wednesday 20 April. It will be the first talks between the military alliance and the Russian Federation since June 2014. Talks between NATO and Russia were suspended over the geopolitical situation in Eastern Ukraine and the Russian annexation of Crimea.
NATO and Russia used to have a platform for negotiation called the NATO-Russia council (NRC) where the necessary flow of information regarding military affairs was shared. This platform served NATO more than Russia. Russia has always been vague about its military deployments and over the past years has given no communication about its snap exercises, large military exercises initiated at moment’s notice.
NATO had more use concerning the NRC. Through the NRC NATO could keep an open and transparent communication towards Russia concerning NATO deployments. This served to convince the Russians that NATO was a defensive military organisation that did not target Russia specific. Russia has always seen NATO as its biggest military threat to Russia’s national security and as such a transparent communication on NATO’s side helped to reassure Russia and prevent in some manner from taking hostile actions.
The annexation of Crimea and Russia’s involvement in Eastern Ukraine led to the cancelation of the NRC in June 2014. The political dialogue remained necessary however but was transferred to the ambassadorial level and above in order to exchange views, according to the statement found on the website of the NRC.
Restarting the talks at the NRC level will serve both parties. First, it allows NATO to get a clearer view of the Russian intensions while at the same time giving the necessary transparency in order to keep Russia at ease about what NATO is doing. The restart will also serve Russia. For more than two years Russia has been politically isolated from the west over Ukraine and the Russian involvement in the Syrian civil war. By restarting the talks with NATO Russia could start to break out of this isolation and resume a constructive role.
It is indeed important that NATO and Russia have a constructive dialogue about military affairs. Both have common security challenges and a common agreement on who is going to do what will serve both parties. Among these security issues are the Syrian civil war, whose refugee problem is affecting Europe, and the current situation in Libya where Russia will also finds its interests in order to expand its influence in North Africa and where the terrorist group Islamic State has been building a new stronghold.
Other security issues are Central Asia. NATO’s mission in Afghanistan has come to an end but recent advances by the Taliban raise the question in what manner Central Asia will remain a stable region. It is feared that Taliban control of Afghanistan will have a destabilising influence in Central Asia, a region that Russia views as part of its sphere of influence.
Closer to Europe there is also the dispute between Turkey and Russia. Ever since the downing of a Russian aircraft in September 2015 by Turkey the relations between these two countries deteriorated. Russia and Turkey now find themselves competing for influence over the same regions, notably Syria and the Caucasus. The recent conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia was a recent example where Russia was on the side of Armenia and Turkey supporting Azerbaijan. Since Turkey is a NATO member the NRC can be used to ease the tensions between both countries.
The prospect remains however that Russia is not seeking a constructive dialogue with NATO, a view first brought forward by the Lithuanian foreign minister, Linas Linkevicius. Linkevicius said that Moscow might use the new NRC talks for propaganda purposes. While he hopes to be wrong he fears that Russia might use the NRC to represent a false image of itself and keep NATO in the dark about Russia’s real political and military agenda concerning what it sees as her sphere of influence. Whatever the outcome, the NRC talks on Wednesday 20 April will be worth noticing what will be discussed in order to get a better idea about what Russia will be up to in the near future.
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