Kaliningrad is Russia’s westernmost outpost, cut off from the mainland and surrounded by two NATO countries, Poland and Lithuania, whom Russia view as a hostile organisation. Kaliningrad is currently a fortified region where Russia has been invested a lot in its security over the past years. Kaliningrad is the key in understanding the complex security situation of the Baltic Region.
Strategic position
Even though Kaliningrad was never intended to be a strategic outpost it did emerge as one by the end of the Cold War. Its location is roughly at the centre of the Baltic Sea, allowing the Russian Baltic Sea Fleet to reach any position in this sea with minimum effort. At the same time its land borders are creating a complex security scenario.
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| Kaliningrad holds a central position in the Baltic Region |
When we look at the map of the Baltic Region we see that Kaliningrad creates a bottleneck between Poland and Lithuania. This bottleneck is created by the close proximity between Kaliningrad and Belarus and has recently been called the Suwalki Gap. This gap will be the nucleus of every war between NATO and Russia concerning the Baltic Region. It is through the Suwalki Gap that NATO will need to move its forces up north into the Baltic States. Russia on its side will seek to employ anti-access/area denial methods to interdict NATO moving through the Suwalki Gap and will base the troops for this strategy in Kaliningrad.
Kaliningrad also creates virtual attrition on the armies of Poland and Lithuania. As long as Kaliningrad is a Russian base then Poland and Lithuania will be forced to station forces near Kaliningrad in order to contain it, thus leaving lesser forces available for other military operations.
Every confrontation between NATO and Russia will have to take Kaliningrad in account.
Forces at Kaliningrad
Kaliningrad houses several military forces aside from the Russian Baltic Sea Fleet. On land the Russians can call on one motorized rifle brigade and a naval infantry brigade, the last one being at approximately 25% strength. It is already rumoured, but not yet confirmed, that Russia plans to insert a new division in Kaliningrad to further strengthen its ground forces.
Russia also stations a fighter aviation regiment, helicopter units and an S-300 air defence regiment in the Kaliningrad area. Already there are plans to install the improved S-400 air defence system in this area to further increase its military might.
Kaliningrad also houses a Voronezh-DM missile launch early warning radar, located on the site of the Dunayevka airfield. The radar has a range of 10,000 km and can simultaneously track 500 objects. The horizontal range is 6,000 km and the vertical range 8,000 km.
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| Voronez-DM radar at Kaliningrad |
Kaliningrad can also be a launch pad for Iskandar-M tactical ballistic missiles and Kalibr cruise missiles, capable of striking conventional targets and attack infrastructure in Poland and Lithuania such as railroad junctions, airports and seaports.
Baltic Sea Fleet
The Russian Baltic Sea Fleet is stationed in Kaliningrad, the only all-time ice-free port Russia has in the Baltic Sea. The fleet can count on two Kilo class submarines, two Sovremenny class destroyers, four Steregushchy class frigates, two Neustrashimy class frigates, six Parchim class corvettes, four Nanuchka class missile boats, seven Tarantul missile boats and 14 minesweepers.
Its amphibious component consists of four Ropucha class landing ships and two Zubr hovercrafts.
Russia’s Baltic Sea Fleet is expected in the event of a military confrontation to block the entrance of the Baltic Sea at the Denmark Strait and Kiel Canal, defend Kaliningrad and support army operations.
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| Yantar shipyard - one of the few capable of building modern warships |
Kaliningrad is also home of the Yantar Shipyard, one of the few big shipyards Russia still owns. The Yantar shipyard is one of the few Russian shipyards that are able to design and build modern warships.
Prospects of Kaliningrad
It seems unlikely that Russia will back down from Kaliningrad. The region is important for the Russian Baltic Sea Fleet as it is her only all-time ice-free port on the Baltic as well as one of the few modern shipyards the Russian Navy will need if it wants to transform herself in a modern navy.
At the same time Kaliningrad is a formidable military outpost that complicates the security scenario of the Baltic Region. Russia fears a confrontation with NATO and thus needs strong outposts to deter NATO’s movements in Eastern Europe and the Baltic Region. Russia has already invested a lot in the military strength of Kaliningrad, turning the region in a fortress. As long as Russia remains at odds with NATO we will see Russia further strengthen the Kaliningrad region with new troops and modern equipement.
