The Visegrad Group, compromised out of Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary, is becoming the new strong regional power within the European Union (EU). The group was created for the purposes of strengthening their integration in the EU as well as advancing their military, economic and energy cooperation.
The rise of the Visegrad group has several reasons. One reason is that the four countries making up the Visegrad group have a similar political point of view with governments that are located to the right of the political spectrum and a common voice concerning EU matters.
The rise of the Visegrad group however is mostly linked with a shift in regional power. Central Europe finds itself squeezed between Germany to the west and Russia to the east and is easily overshadowed by these states. This can be clearly seen when one looks at the history of Poland. Over the centuries Poland has risen as a regional power at certain times while at other times the Polish state just ceased to exist. Whenever Germany or Russia were a strong regional power, the Poles found themselves competing against a strong neighbour. Things were disastrous for Poland whenever Germany and Russia were both strong powers and thus able to pressure Poland from two sides. Indeed, throughout history we can see that Poland cannot become a regional power when both Germany and Russia overshadow it.
But whenever Germany and Russia are declining in power it is Poland who has the capabilities of becoming a strong regional power and filling up the power vacuum created by the demise of these two states. This condition is slowly becoming the reality in today’s world.
Russia is obviously in decline, both on the political as the economical level. Ever since Russia invaded the Crimea in February 2014 it has become politically isolated and suffering from economic sanctions imposed by the EU. The EU sanctions are not lethal to the Russian economy but the low oil prices on the international markets are taking their toll. The Russian economy is shrinking as the government can no longer count on large incomes of oil and gas deliveries to the EU. Russia already has to use its financial reserves to keep its economy going but several regions within Russia are now faced with bankruptcy unless they are bailed out by the Russian government. Russia’s military adventures in Eastern Ukraine and Syria, as well as the massive modernisation of its armed forces, are also draining the financial reserves Russia can count on.
Germany still is a strong economy and will most likely remain so in the near future. Germany however is slowly starting to lose political influence in the region, especially influence over Central Europe. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has been a leading figure on the EU level, taking the lead in bailing out the Greek economy, strengthening the Eurozone and finding solutions for the Syrian refugee crisis. Her political weight is now being judged by the success of her efforts. With the economic crisis in Greece still going on and without a permanent solution for the refugee crisis, many start to doubt Angela Merkel’s solutions.
The Visegrad Group opposes the plans by the EU parliament to take in a certain number of refugees and provide for them. They are strengthened in this opinion by other EU members in Eastern Europe. The most vocal of these political leaders is the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban but he is now followed by Czech President Milos Zeman. Both leaders have serious doubts about the large influx of young adult males among the refugees, seeing them not as war refugees but more as economic refugees.
Poland, with a new right government, is also opposing the solution of the EU parliament, thus further strengthening the Visegrad Group on the political level. It should be noted that Poland provides most of the strength inside the Visegrad Group. As stated earlier, Poland fills the power vacuum in Central Europe now that Germany and Russia are on a decline. With its new right government, the Polish state found more common ground with the other three members of the Visegrad Group.
Their economic rise is also expected to continue, further strengthening the power of the Visegrad Group. Already the Visegrad Group is the fifth largest economy in Europe. All four economies are healthy and have potential to grow, creating room to further strengthen their economic position. Should the United Kingdom, EU’s second largest economy, vote to leave the Union then the Visegrad Group will become the fourth largest economy. The Visegrad Group will only gain more economic power and influence with a further decline of the economies of Western Europe.
In conclusion we can state that in today’s world the Visegrad Group is a strong regional power within Central Europe and has the potential to increase its influence over the coming years, possibly turning it to a leading region within the EU.
