The deteriorating security situation in the Baltic Region has been a wakeup call for the Swedish government to evaluate its military position in this region. It now faces a potential hostile Russia that has become the dominant military power in the Baltic Region. Russian military exercises in the recent years have convinced Sweden that Russia will not always respect Sweden’s borders.
Sweden’s main adversary during the Cold War used to be the Soviet Union. In order to counter this threat the Swedes adopted a policy of neutrality in which it remained outside NATO and the Warsaw Pact. Standing neutral the country needed a strong military in order to effectively deter any possible adversary from invading Sweden. By the end of the Cold War the Swedish Armed Forces were among the largest and most modern in Europe. The fall of the Soviet Union ended the threat of a possible Soviet invasion. Faced without a strategic goal the Swedes decreased their armed forces and defence budget and started to focus on inter-operability.
Sweden sought to be able to cooperate with as much different countries as possible in order to pursue common goals. During this period of inter-operability Swedish forces were actively deployed abroad. The most known event of this inter-operability was the deployment of one of Swedish modern submarines to the US Navy in order to train the US Navy’s Anti-Submarine Warfare capabilities. But Russia’s growing military presence in the Baltic Region over the past years has Sweden worried once again about their security.
Two major events were a wakeup call for Sweden to once again start investing in their military capabilities. The first event happened on the morning of 29 March 2013 when a formation of Russian airplanes consisting of two Tu-22M3 ‘Backfire’ bombers escorted by four Su-27 ‘Flanker’ fighters made an attack run on Stockholm. This Russian military exercise has Sweden worried about Russia’s intentions. A potential war in the Baltic Region will draw the European Union in the conflict and Sweden still remains a powerful military player in this region.
The second event happened in October 2014 when an unknown underwater contact was discovered in the territorial waters of Sweden. Although the identity of the contact has not been confirmed many point to the possibility of a Russian midget submarine operating in Swedish waters. The large maritime hunt for this underwater contact started in 17 October and ended subsequent November without results.
These two events made Sweden aware that it can no longer be sure about Russia’s intentions in the Baltic Region. By now the Russian government has proven to be willing to use military force in order to pursue political objectives. It is likely that Russia is just testing the Swedish military capabilities to respond since Sweden still has a large and modern army in the Baltic Region. Russia feels this need to test the capabilities even if Sweden will most likely choose to remain neutral in a potential conflict.
Sweden however now realizes that it is in a weak position to deter Russia. This is not unsurprising as years of military budget cuts and downsizing of the armed forces made the Swedish military a shadow of its former self. Sweden now starts to change its strategy. Even though Sweden declares itself to be non-aligned it is seeking military partnerships with other Scandinavian countries. Already Sweden has new defence treaties with Finland and Denmark in order to share information and cooperate together in the air and on sea. At the same time the population continues to look more and more favourable for a closer cooperation with NATO. While the portion of the population that wants to join NATO remains small it has been growing in recent years.
New military programs are being created to preserve or even enlarge Sweden’s military capabilities. Troops are once again being station on the island of Gotland, deemed strategically by Sweden. These troops consist of one mechanized and one armoured company together with command-and-control component.
New warship programs are also being approved, the latest one being the A-26 submarine class that will be an improvement of the Gotland class submarines, rated among one of the best diesel-electric submarines currently in existence. As for its air forces, Sweden is currently modernizing its fleet of 100 Gripen C/D fighter planes to the new Gripen E standard. Air Force leaders have been advocating of increasing the number of Gripen E aircraft from 60 to 80 planes.
With an unpredictable Russia that has been known to use military force to pursue political goals it has become clear for Sweden that its neutrality will come at a price. That price is to reinvest in its Armed Forces, expanding and modernizing them in order to create a credible deterrent in order for Sweden to protect its neutrality.
