2015 was an eventful year for the Baltic Region that saw several changes to the overall security within this region. The Baltic Defense blog hereby presents an overview of how the Baltic Region has changed over the past year.
2015 started with Operation Atlantic Resolve, a continual rotation of US armed forces, the size of an army brigade, in the Baltic States. These forces are to train and strengthen the Baltic States armed forces as well as deter Russia from invading this region. The message towards Russia was clear, namely that the United States will remain involved in the security of the European continent. The deployment of US brigades in Europe shows at the same time the fundamental weakness of the military of the European Union (EU). While the EU has at all time two brigade sized units under its control, the European Battle Groups, these groups are still not deployed throughout the EU to area’s where their presence is most needed .
At the same time the Baltic Air policing mission was continued with the deployment of Belgian, Italian, Polish, Spanish, Norwegian, British, Hungarian and German aircraft to protect the skies above the Baltic States as well as monitor Russian air activity. The Air Policing mission continued to operate from the Ämarie Air Force base in Estonia, the Siauliai Air Force base in Lithuania and the Malbork Air Force base in Poland.
Russia’s military build-up in the region has the Baltic States worried about their security but they found new partners in the region that understand their troubles. Both Finland and Sweden are not a part of NATO but they also feel threatened by an aggressive Russia. Sweden took the initiative and started to form defence treaties, first with Finland and later with Denmark, in order to cooperate better in the skies and on the seas. While both countries are still not a part of NATO their population is slowly becoming more convinced in joining NATO. While a popular majority for joining NATO is still a long way off, there are signs that both Finland and Sweden will start to look for a closer cooperation with NATO.
This still leaves the Baltic States largely on their own at the moment. Several projects have been started to strengthen their own position as well as countering Russian influence. Lithuania took a major lead compared to Latvia and Estonia. The new liquid natural gas terminal in Lithuania can help to break the monopoly of Russian energy deliveries to the Baltic States.
Lithuania also made great steps in modernizing its mechanized forces. The delivery of PzH2000’s from Germany was agreed on 29 September. The United States is also considering selling 84 Stryker infantry carrier vehicles to replace the old M113 armoured personnel carriers in the Mechanized Brigade of Lithuania.Lithuania is also on the front of integrating its forces to regional security and has become an active member of the Lithuanian-Polish-Ukrainian Brigade.
Latvia took the lead in countering the information warfare aspect that Russia employs in its Hybrid Warfare. The new NATO’s strategic communications centre of excellence in Riga will train NATO press officers in how to communicate with the press and battle against Russia disinformation and propaganda in the media.
Latvia also has been busy modernizing its armed forces with 123 British Combat Reconnaissance (Tracked) (CVRT) light armored vehicles. At the same time the new Latvian President vowed to raise the defense budget up to the two percent GDP rule NATO demands.Estonia was the host nation of several NATO exercises this year in order to get western troops familiarised with the terrain and regional forces in the Baltic States. Estonia is one of the few countries in NATO to maintain a two percent GDP investment in its armed forces. Estonia is still taking the threat of Russian infiltration, either by regular forces or criminal elements, across its border serious and started to construct a fence to wall of its border. The plan to build a fence along the Russian border comes a year after the kidnapping of Eston Kohver on 5 September 2014.
Eston Kohver was an intelligence officer in the Estonian security agency. He was tasks to monitor criminal cartels smuggling contraband across the border at the Luhamaa crossing. In the night of 5 September 2014 he was kidnapped by Russian agents while he was still on Estonian soil and just two days after President Obama visited Estonia.
Russia at the same time wasn’t spared from military problems of its own. Its military adventures in Ukraine has put the country under economic sanctions. These sanctions, together with low oil prices, are crippling to the Russian economy and undermine the modernization program of the Russian forces. Already the Russian Air Force has suffered several accidents on a short notice between June and July, indicating a structural failing in the maintenance program of Russian aircrafts.
With Russia currently occupied in Eastern Ukraine and in Syria there seems to be little threat for the Baltic States but the possibility of Hybrid Warfare remains possible. Russia also made it clear that it will not weaken its attention in the Baltic Region. With growing tension between NATO and Russia the Iskander-M ballistic missiles are back in Kaliningrad.
Even with Russia occupied in other wars, NATO did not forget the Baltic Region. By the end of the year NATO realized that its strategic position was bad. The Russian Baltic Fleet was reported by NATO to be capable to block the access of the Baltic Sea. At the same time a new focal point appeared on the map, the Suwalki Gap. This 65 kilometer wide gap between Kaliningrad and Belarus is the only land connection between Poland and the Baltic States. NATO worries that Russia might cut of this land connection in the event of a war. This, together with the Baltic Fleet closing the Baltic Sea would totally isolate the Baltic States.
Conclusion
2015 saw a lot of changes in the Baltic Region. The Baltic States became stronger while new alliances are more possible. Even though Russia continues to act aggressive in the Baltic Region there is little change for an escalation in the current geopolitical world. This does not mean that Russia ignores the Baltics, far from it. Russia’s strength in this region is formidable and they enjoy and advantageous forward strategic position. 2016 will most likely see NATO and the Baltic States find a way to counter for Russia’s strength.
Russia at the same time wasn’t spared from military problems of its own. Its military adventures in Ukraine has put the country under economic sanctions. These sanctions, together with low oil prices, are crippling to the Russian economy and undermine the modernization program of the Russian forces. Already the Russian Air Force has suffered several accidents on a short notice between June and July, indicating a structural failing in the maintenance program of Russian aircrafts.
With Russia currently occupied in Eastern Ukraine and in Syria there seems to be little threat for the Baltic States but the possibility of Hybrid Warfare remains possible. Russia also made it clear that it will not weaken its attention in the Baltic Region. With growing tension between NATO and Russia the Iskander-M ballistic missiles are back in Kaliningrad.
Even with Russia occupied in other wars, NATO did not forget the Baltic Region. By the end of the year NATO realized that its strategic position was bad. The Russian Baltic Fleet was reported by NATO to be capable to block the access of the Baltic Sea. At the same time a new focal point appeared on the map, the Suwalki Gap. This 65 kilometer wide gap between Kaliningrad and Belarus is the only land connection between Poland and the Baltic States. NATO worries that Russia might cut of this land connection in the event of a war. This, together with the Baltic Fleet closing the Baltic Sea would totally isolate the Baltic States.
Conclusion
2015 saw a lot of changes in the Baltic Region. The Baltic States became stronger while new alliances are more possible. Even though Russia continues to act aggressive in the Baltic Region there is little change for an escalation in the current geopolitical world. This does not mean that Russia ignores the Baltics, far from it. Russia’s strength in this region is formidable and they enjoy and advantageous forward strategic position. 2016 will most likely see NATO and the Baltic States find a way to counter for Russia’s strength.
