Since the terrorist attacks in Paris on 13 November Russia has changed her strategic perspectives against the European Union (EU). Russia’s military adventures in Eastern Ukraine and in Syria have alienated Russia more and more from the West and the EU. Aside from the political toll Russia also pays an economic price for maintaining its military forces in Ukraine and Syria. The cost of its military action in Syria is estimated to be $ 2.5 million (€ 2.346 million) per day. With the Russian economy collapsing it is in dire need to have the EU sanctions lifted and to attract foreign investors to get her economy going. The Paris attacks by Islamic State (IS) have given Russia an opportunity to find political common ground in order to restore her image in Europe.
Directly after the attacks in Paris the French government declared that it would send its sole aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle, to scale up the offensive airstrikes against IS. Russia took this opportunity to improve its ties with France. The Kremlin ordered its flagship in the Mediterranean, the cruiser Moskva, to establish radio contact, treat the French as allies and look for means to coordinate Russian and French attacks against IS. Later Russia donated a young dog to the French police to replace the German Sheppard that got killed at the police raids in Saint-Denis. This gesture is aimed at creating some sort of goodwill between the two nations.
France in the meantime is looking for allies to join the fight against IS since the French army is not able to defeat IS on its own. The United States (US) however is reluctant to send troops in another conflict in the Middle East. It is therefore unlikely that France will find the military means it is looking for in the US. This forces France to look for any other allies that have the same commitment for fighting IS. Russia recently inserted itself in the Syrian civil war by siding with Syrian President Al-Assad. Even though Russia’s focus is on assisting the Syrian government to fight against the Free Syrian Army, it also fights against IS. This results in the fact that Russia is now needed at the negotiating table in order to find a solution for the Syrian conflict.
Western leaders are now coming to realize that they have no choice but to negotiate with Russia. This gives Russia the opportunity to create a better political image and use this new positive image to pursue her interests in Europe. Any negotiation between Russia and European leaders will also involve the situation in Eastern Ukraine, another area where Russia is pursuing her interests with military means.
Russia is now becoming an important player in the fight against IS and indeed a vital player in finding a diplomatic solution for Syria. If western leaders want to cooperate with Russia they will take a softer stance against Russia to make sure Russia stays at the negotiation table and keeps coordinating her attacks against IS. A softer stance however is contrary to the wishes of many Eastern European countries who still view Russia as a potential threat. For them it is clear that a hard stance must be maintained.
This situation gives Russia the opportunity to create a division between western and eastern EU members. It seems unlikely however that the EU sanctions will be lifted that easily. The main requirement for the lifting of the sanctions is that the situation in Eastern Ukraine returns to normal and for Russia to retreat from this area. But just as the Russian economy gets hurt by the sanctions, so are the EU members who see their bilateral trade with Russia cease. Already several countries are playing with the idea to lift their national sanctions against Russia, Germany being the most prominent among them.
Russia knows that the western leaders will take a softer stance towards Russia because they need the assistance of the Russian military in Syria. Ironically Russia cannot afford to leave the diplomatic process as well. The country is in need of foreign investors to revive the economy so it needs all the political goodwill it can get in order to resume talks about the EU sanctions. The most likely course of action will be that Russia will try to maintain the current status quo in Eastern Ukraine in order not to antagonize the western world.
The biggest question that remains is what will happen once the common enemy in the form of IS has been defeated as Russia’s interests in both Syria and Eastern Ukraine are running opposite from the interest of the western world.