New plans are emerging for NATO to deploy more troops on a permanent basis towards the Baltic States and possibly even Poland in order to strengthen the alliance in the Baltic Region. One of the plans currently being discussed is to deploy a battalion sized unit of around 800 to 1.000 soldiers in each of the three Baltic States. A fourth battalion could possibly be stationed in Poland. These battalions would then be placed under direct NATO command.
The plans are still being created and it is unlikely that any additional troops will be stationed soon. A possible date that is emerging is July 2016 when NATO leaders meet in Warsaw, Poland. It is most likely that the decision for deploying these troops will be taken at this summit and deployments of the troops are to be followed soon afterwards.
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| US troops deployed in the Baltic States - The US will most likely deploy most of the troops for the new battalions |
Analysis
By placing a battalion sized unit of 800 to 1.000 soldiers in each Baltic State, NATO will increase its combat capabilities significantly in this region. The Baltic States each have small armies. Estonia has around 5.300 army soldiers, half of them conscripts. Lithuania accounts for 7.500 soldiers but this figure includes around 4.800 active reserve troops. Latvia has the smallest army with around 1.250 professional soldiers but Latvia is planning to further increase its own military strength. Under this plan, the three battalions will result in an increase of ground troops by 15 to 20 percent, depending on the size of the battalions.
By placing a large battalion in each Baltic State, NATO troop levels in this region will grow considerably. In the case of Latvia this will result in almost a doubling of the amount of ground troops. Western troops permanent stationed in the Baltic States will add a further training capability for the Baltic States. Knowing how to cooperate successfully with other NATO troops is vital in the defense plans of these countries. Their operational goal in a war is to insert their troops in a much larger NATO coalition deployed to defend the Baltic States.
It is unclear who will deliver these troops and how long they will be stationed before being rotated by other units. The United States will most likely shoulder a large burden as the US is on good terms with the Baltic States and is already committed to the defense of these countries as demonstrated by Operation Atlantic Resolve. It is unclear where the US will find the necessary units. Most likely these battalions will be drawn from the US Army in Europe. Other NATO members are also favorable in supporting the plan of sending battalions to the Baltic States but it is as of yet unknown who these countries are.
One NATO member however raises some doubts on NATO’s new plan. Germany is showing concerns about NATO targeting Russia as an enemy. The reason for Germany’s stance is more related to economics then strategy. Germany is seeking ways to boost its economy and is now looking for Russia as a trading partner. EU sanctions against Russia as well as Russia’s countersanctions have severely damaged the trade between Germany and Russia. Germany depends strongly on Russian energy deliveries in the form of natural gas. At the same time Russia was an export market for Germany. Already Germany is thinking of lifting its sanctions against Russia, or at least lessen them, in order to revive bilateral trade.
Russia for its part is only willing to lift its sanctions only after all EU countries have lifted their sanctions against Russia. The question remains if Russia is willing to maintain this policy. The Russian economy is collapsing under the burden of low international oil prices and the European sanctions are slowly taking their toll. At a certain moment Russia will consider lifting the sanctions on a case by case bias in order to get the Russian economy working again. Should Germany lift its sanctions it is likely that Russia will decide to lift its sanctions against Germany somewhere in the near future in order to get trade started.
Germany, keen on getting back full access to the Russian market, will not risk antagonizing Russia all too much. It already has doubts on the plan of stationing permanent NATO brigades in the Baltic States and might push for a more moderate solution at the July NATO summit in Warsaw.
