On October 25th the Polish Law and Justice Party won the Polish general elections. Given the wide margin in which the Law and Justice Party won it is now able to govern without a coalition partner. This would make it the first time since 1989, the year in which communism fell in Poland that a party is able to govern alone.
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| Law and Justice Party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski (Left) and prime minister candidate Beata Szydlo at the party headquarters the evening of the elections |
The Law and justice Party is a right conservative party that is strongly nationalist and skeptical towards the European Union (EU). It remains unclear however what kind of a course the new Polish government will take on the European level.
The challenges for Poland on the European level remain the same and given the current circumstances it is unlikely that any major changes will happen. Poland still faces a belligerent Russia on its eastern border as well as an unstable Ukraine to the southeast. At the same time Poland still needs Western European investments to keep its economy growing and modernizing.
But a more Eurosceptic Poland will show its mark for the next several years. It is unlikely that Poland will join the Eurozone any time soon, thus preventing the EU from growing into a further stronger economic union with one relative stable currency. Poland will also try to block any law that gives the EU more influence over its members, thus undermining the EU as a political union though the European Union has never been able to really impose its will over the state rights of its members.
More important is the central position that Poland has in Central Europe. Poland forms the Visegrad group, together with Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Even though the members in the Visegrad group have different opinions, a more Eurosceptic Poland will find more common ground with the other members. It is possible that Poland might even turn to the Visegrad group on the economic level as a possible substitute in order to loosen ties with Western Europe.
Most importantly will be to see how Poland will make its stance against Russia. Russia has always been seen as a historic adversary that needs to be deterred. A more nationalistic government might be inclined to make a tougher stance against Russia and even provide more support for the Ukrainian government.
Poland is also an important strategic ally with its position on the Northern Plains of Europe, the main invasion route between Europe and Russia. With heightened tensions between NATO and Russia this position will only gain in importance. The US already puts emphasis on Poland and included the country in Operation Atlantic Resolve, the deployment of US forces in Eastern Europe in order to deter Russia. It is likely that the new Polish government will work even more closely with NATO and the US in order to safeguard its military position.
Relying on NATO in order to maintain and secure its strategic position in Eastern Europe will also force Poland to keep cooperating with other EU members. Even though Poland will now be largely opposed against the EU it still needs the EU to support it. It is however possible that Poland will now be looking to deal with EU member states directly and pass the EU level in order to seek this support.
