European nations still like to view Russia as an all menacing military threat that is capable of sweeping into eastern Europe. Indeed, some units of the Russian Armed Forces poses a credible threat. Recent events however show us that the Russian Armed Forces are plagued by several problems that severely undermine their combat capabilities.
A first problem is the bad state of Russia’s aircraft. With seven accidents in seven weeks it became clear that the Russian Air Force is having a serious problem that points to a systemic failure in maintenance. The Russian Air Force has been operating on levels unseen since the end of the Cold War so a greater demand in maintenance is required to keep the planes flying. With seven accidents concerning different aircraft types it becomes clear that Russia suffers from maintenance problems in order to keep its aircraft flying safely .
A second problem is that Russia relies heavily on conscripts and still fails to make its entire armed force a contract base professional army. This means that every year Russian Army units have to reform as the conscripts leave and new raw recruits have to be retrained. This can cause for serious operational problems. During one phase of the war in Easter Ukraine we saw Russia move several divisions away from the Ukrainian border. It was believed in the West that Russia was backing down from the conflict but in reality Russia had to withdraw the divisions back to their bases in order to release the conscripts from military duty and train the new recruits.
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| Severodvinsk class submarine |
The navy is more troublesome when it comes to new warships. After Cold War the Russian Navy never received the funding it needed to maintain its operational capabilities as well as develop new warships. Most of its naval engineers left the country and started to work abroad thus Russia lost a lot of expertise on how to build warships. Its latest attack submarine, the Severodvinsk, is a project that dates back from 1994. Plans for new cruisers and aircraft carriers exist but the Navy lacks the funds and knowledge to build these ships. Given this progress the Russian navy will in the foreseeable future exist of corvettes and frigates for coastal defense while its ocean going patrols will be performed by a small force of nuclear submarines.
The biggest problem facing Russia at the moment is the bad shape of its economy. Low oil prices coupled with European sanctions are taking their toll on the Russian economy. The Russian government however keeps making up plans for massive military modernization projects that are no longer affordable. Already the Russian government had to scale back its modernization plans.
Conclusion
Russia is currently facing several major problems that undermine its military capabilities. Its Air Force is suffering from maintenance problems, the Army still requires conscripts while using outdated equipment and the Navy will most likely lose the capabilities of projecting naval power on a global scale in the coming years.
Russia’s military problems have a deeper lying cause. A first reason is that Russia doesn’t have the economy to build a large military power to operate as a superpower. It’s economy is judged to be one third of the US economy so keeping up with the US Armed Forces is something Russia cannot do unless it goes for an economic bankruptcy like the Soviet Union did.
A second problem is that Russia lacks skilled workers capable of developing new technologies and weapon systems. The RSM-56 Bulava submarine launched ballistic missile was designed by the end of the 1990s but was only operational in October 2014 after several failed tests. The same story goes for the development of the Severodvinsk attack submarine, a submarine that took nearly 20 years to complete.
Russia’s military problems have several causes. Paramount for Russia is to rebuild a solid level of technological expertise in order to create new and modern weapon platforms to keep up with other countries. At the same time it needs to have a professional soldier force and a logistical and maintenance support at a more efficient level then is the case.
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| Aramata T-14 tank - successor tank to the T-90 |
Russia’s economy compared to its large military force is also off balance. It will be impossible for Russia to keep all its forces up to modern standards. There are already doubts if Russia can field the new Armata T-14 tank to all its forces. Unless Russia can expand its economy it has to make the choice in either allowing some units to get all the focus or to downsize its armed forces to a more appropriate level so each unit can have the same level of high support that is needed.
