The past week saw a strange and possible disturbing fact occurring in the Duma, the Russian parliament. Two members of Putin’s party, United Russia, filled a request to investigate the legality of the independence of the Baltic States from the Soviet Union. Their proposal was however quickly shut down as the general prosecutor office said that there were no legal grounds to investigate this request. The general prosecutor office even stated that some request it receives, like this one, are “devoid of common sense altogether”.
The Kremlin was also fast to state that it was unaware that the request had been filled stating that “it is difficult to understand the essence of this initiative”. Even Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov expressed skepticism when he was confronted with the request by reporters.
It is unclear why the request had been filled but the fact that the Kremlin opposed it so fast makes it seem that Putin has no intentions to get involved in the Baltic States at the moment.
Even so, the fear that Russia might be using Hybrid Warfare in the Baltic States is something that is being feared by these three states. But how willing is the Putin regime willing to act in the Baltic States, especially given the new tension between NATO and Russia?
Despite the general belief in the Baltic States that Russia will one day use Hybrid Warfare to create a conflict in this region there is no such evidence to support this claim. Any covert action, when exposed, will be seen as a Russian intervention and will activate NATO’s Article 5 of collective defense. And the Baltic States will call on Article 5 when they suspect Russian involvement.
Russia will then be faced with the choice to either continue the covert support, resulting in more economic and political sanctions as well as NATO strengthening the Baltic States. On the other side Russia could be forced to back down, resulting in a loss of face that might give rise to internal troubles at home. Putin’s popularity at the moment is created by the propaganda image that he is restoring the Russian greatness of the czars. Indeed, the term “Novorossiya” doesn’t mean the recreation of the Soviet Union but the expansion of Russia under the czars. The term disappeared quickly however once the sanctions were in place and this to not further antagonize the EU and NATO.
Putin knows that he cannot match NATO in any conventional war; the Russian armed forces are too weak for that. This is the reason why even with an economic recession, Russia is still imposed on spending billions of dollars to modernize its armed forces to be a match against NATO. For the moment the only force capable of threatening NATO are the nuclear armed forces. Russia even created a term called nuclear de-escalation meaning that by threatening to deploy nuclear weapons it can scare NATO enough so that it will end any conflict. The problem is that if this bluff is being called by NATO then Russia has to back down because nobody is looking forward to a thermonuclear war.
Some people, either political as military, claim that Russia could act covert or fast enough before NATO can make a decision. There is a certain truth in it. During the annexation of the Crimea in 2014 the west debated too long if the little green men were Russian soldiers or just local rebels in a uniform. By the time the consensus was reached the Crimea had already been annexed. But can we expect NATO to discuss this same topic once one or several of its members are being invaded by little green men? Any Russian involvement in the Baltics will be seen immediately as a Russian involvement and will meet a NATO that will react a lot faster than it did in the Ukraine.
Conclusion
Russia’s attempt to investigate the independence of the Baltic States is just another provocation, one that wasn’t even demanded by the Kremlin. The Kremlin made it clear that it has no intention to antagonize the West any further, given the fast and swift action to block the investigation.
Even if Russia would judge the Baltic independence as an illegal act it would mean nothing. It might give Russia some legal reasons for involvement in the Baltic States but these reasons will be unrecognized by other nations. Russia tried to justify the annexation of the Crimea in 2014 by stating that it was handed over to Ukraine on an illegal basis. While Putin got away with the annexation of the Crimea he will face strong opposition when interfering with NATO members. Given the weakness of the Russian Army it seems very unlikely that Putin will move against the Baltics. He is known to be an opportunist but not a person who starts a conflict with NATO in a reckless act.
