To understand the current security situation in the Baltic Region and how it evolves it important to understand how the balance of power currently is and how it will evolve. At the moment that balance of power is showing signs of shifting, most notably by Sweden and Finland. At the same time this region is characterized by several countries that all have different security problems but all of them are centered on Russia’s current aggressive behavior in this region. The balance of power also opens up several openings for outside nations to play an important role in order to become more evolved. This would be beneficial for almost all countries but several countries are also seeking ways to improve their security situation on their own, either with hard power or with soft power.
The Russian threat
The security of the Baltic Region is at the moment challenged by Russian military activity that at times is aggressive and even reckless leading to several security incidents like Russian Air Force jets nearly colliding with passenger planes and alleged submarine sightings in the territorial waters of Sweden and Finland. The use of hybrid warfare by Russia in eastern Ukraine has also increased the fear in the Baltic States that they could be successfully attacked by this form of warfare.
It would be short sighted to state that Russia at the moment has any attention to move offensively in this region. Most countries in this region are part of the NATO alliance and all of them, except Russia, are EU members, protected by their own common security treaty.
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| NATO expansion is the reason often used by Russia to explain its aggressive behaviour |
This doesn’t take away that the Baltic Region has an important military value for Russia. Saint-Petersburg is an important economic and political city with Russia and one of the few ports Russia has to engage in oversea trade. The enclave of Kaliningrad also offers Russia a forward military deployment in Eastern Europe and serves as the main naval base of the Baltic Fleet.
But the most importantly the Baltic Region is a testing ground for Russia where it can measure the resolve of NATO members and monitor their responses. Military exercises and provocative maneuvers all serve to see how NATO will respond in the given geopolitical relations between Russia and the West. At the same time the Baltic Region serves to keep NATO focused on this region, freeing Russia to pursue its goals elsewhere. While NATO deploys troops in the Baltic Region as part of operation Atlantic Resolve in response to Russia’s sabre rattling, it was in the Balkans, Greece and Turkey where Russia was exercising its political and economic might.
Russia still forms a threat to this region, not only because of its reckless military exercises but also because several nations in this regions, most notably the Baltic States, have large groups of ethnic Russians that can be used to stir things up in accordance to Russians Hybrid Warfare doctrine.
Sweden – neutral but integrating.
Sweden has a strict neutrality policy and as such it isn’t a member of NATO. Neutrality however is useless without the means to enforce it. Therefor Sweden can call on small but technologically very sophisticated and modern army in order to protect its neutrality. Recent events however have shown that having modern armed forces will not always protect neutrality against a determined adversary.
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| Swedens Visby class corvettes |
Sweden experienced this several times when Russian jets made simulated bomb runs against Sweden, caused for near collisions between Russian jets and Swedish passenger liners and the alleged Russian submarine spying in Swedish waters.
It shouldn’t come as a surprise why Russia is targeting Sweden. Part of the Russian strategy is to look for the weakest link and Sweden, not being a NATO member, is the weak link that Russia can intimidate without fearing a strong reaction by NATO.
Sweden thus realizes that it not only needs a modern army to inforce its neutrality but also has to find ways to get outside protection. Although Sweden is not willing to join NATO it already created two defense treaties with Finland and Denmark. Key in these treaties is the sharing of information, closer cooperation and joint training.
Finland – being pushed to NATO.
Finland isn’t a NATO member either but the countries enjoys close relations with the alliance and is training together on a regular basis. Just like Sweden, Finland likes to remain neutral but the current events are pushing Finland ever closer towards NATO.
The reason why Finland is slowly revising its stance on staying out of NATO is because of Russia’s aggressive politic and military deployments. As part of the Russian militarization of the Arctic it reopened a military base close to the Finnish border. Further infringements by Russian aircraft flying close to the Finnish border as well as the alleged Russian submarine in Finnish waters are reasons why Finland feels threatened by Russia.
There were already long time talks of Finnish politicians to join NATO but the lack of popular support prevented the politicians to have the popular support needed join NATO. The popular support however grows with every new aggressive Russian act towards Finland.
Finland joining NATO would be a nightmare scenario for Russia as NATO would then be able to isolate Saint-Petersburg, a vital port and economic center. At the same time Russia would be forced to station troops along the Finnish border. Given Russia’s massive manpower this would be possible to do but the virtual attrition that would be the result would mean that Russia would have to weaken its presence somewhere else.
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| Finlands F-18's are among the most modern fighter aircraft in the Baltic Region |
Finland also brings the option of having a modern air force operating close to Saint-Petersburg. NATOs Baltic Air Policing mission over the Baltic States, that are at times just eight aircraft, was the only air force deployment close on hand to threaten Russia’s position in the Baltic Region. With Finland joining NATO this air balance would make a tilt and thus placing NATO in a stronger position when it comes to air power.
The Baltic States – the fear of invasion
The three Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are all characterized by small economies and small armies. All three states fear a Russian invasion and occupation like during the days of the Soviet Union. As a consequence, these three states made hard work to become EU and NATO members in order to have the protection of NATO Article 5 of collective defense.
A full scale Russian invasion and occupation is very unlikely to occur in the Baltic States as Russia can not win a conventional war against NATO but certain uncertainties remain open. The Czech General Petr Paval recently stated that Russia is able to occupy all three Baltic States within two days.
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| Czech General Petr Pavel |
There is some truth in this statement. When confronted with a numerical superior Russian army equipped with the latest military equipment produced by Russia the small Baltic armies can do little to oppose, let alone stop, a full-fledged Russian invasion without outside help. Given the fact that the Baltic States are flat countries, excellent for the deployment of mechanized forces, Russia could occupy these countries before NATO would have time to make a hard decision, let alone insert troops in time. With the Baltic States occupied the question is if NATO and the EU will accept it as a fait accompli or decide to retake the Baltic States. Already inside the Polish Army there are doubts if Article 5 would be accepted by western European States in such scenario’s as these countries are less willing to confront Russia.
NATO’s Operation Atlantic Resolve is there for aimed to bolster the defense of the Baltic States with a US brigade taking rotations to deter Russia. This raises the stakes for Russia as any invasion of the Baltic States would also draw in US combat troops from the beginning.
But aside from relying only on NATO and EU military assistance the Baltic States are also taking steps to increase their military position. Conscription allows the Baltic States to keep their armed forces up to strength as well as provide a vast reserve of manpower that could also be used as a resistance force operating behind the frontlines. The recent military training exercise in Estonia, Exercise “Siil” (Hedgehog) saw the mobilization of 13.000 troops in order to train for the defense against as Russian invasion.
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| Estonian Soldiers during Exercise Siil - Hedgehog |
A conventional Russian military invasion remains very unlikely but the Baltic States are vulnerable for Russia’s Hybrid Warfare. All three states have large ethnic Russian minorities that the Kremlin could use to manipulate. By using Hybrid Warfare these minorities could be used to undermine the Baltic governments by staging violent protests. Analyzing Hybrid Warfare and knowing how to counter it remains crucial for the Baltic States.
Poland – the center of gravity
By far the most powerful army in the Baltic Region is the Polish army. In any conflict in Eastern Europe the Polish army will serve as the center of gravity for EU and NATO forces. Currently the Polish Army is busy redeploying itself from the German border, where its Soviet-era bases are, to new bases on the border with Belarus. Poland also borders Ukraine and Lithuania and as such it is a factor to take into account for any conflict in these countries.
Poland fears a Russian drive through Belarus into Eastern Europe but it is unlikely that this will ever happen. Just as Belarus serves as a Russian buffer state against NATO it also serves as a NATO buffer against Russia. Even if Poland stations forces opposite Belarus it can still allow itself to divert forces south to Ukraine or north into the Baltic States.
Poland is also busy with modernizing its armed forces, just as the Baltic States are doing. The country also developed a new domestic produced tank with increased stealth capabilities in the infrared and radar spectrum. The creation of a 100.000 men strong home army of people trained in shooting and basic military skills serves as a deterrent as this home army is expected to operate behind the lines during an occupation of Polish territory.
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| PL-01 - a domestic produced Polish stealth tank |
Conclusion
Russia seeks to intimidate NATO in the Baltic Region but aggressive and sometimes reckless military maneuvers are forming a security risk in this region. Russian aggressive behavior in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine also gave Russia the image of an aggressive state looking for military confrontation. Thus it is Russia’s that is the catalyst that forces the other countries to react.
While Sweden and Finland remain neutral several shifts have already been undertaken. Sweden has a very modern army and its defense treaties with Denmark and Finland further strengthen Sweden’s position. Finland is slowly shifting towards the NATO sphere of influence and with every Russian aggressive action near Finland’s borders the popular support for joining NATO grows.
The Baltic States still fear a conventional invasion and although unlikely there might be a small chance that Russia might pull it off. Lacking the strategic depth or the amount of forces needed, these countries can be overrun in two days. The question remains if faced with a fact, will the West respond sufficiently and in time. Even if the conventional invasion is very unlikely the three Baltic States are vulnerable for Hybrid Warfare and thus must be ready on how to deal with it.
Poland is taking no chances and redeploys its army eastward while creating a 100.000 man guerrilla force called the Home Army. Bordering Lithuania, Belarus and Ukraine the Polish Army will be a center of gravity for NATO in Eastern Europe from where the alliance can respond in several geographic directions while maintaining pressure on Russia.
