Over the past several months NATO has been very occupied by Russian activity in the Baltic States. Indeed, after the crisis in eastern Ukraine Russia has been stepping up its military activities in this region in order to test NATO’s resolve and willingness. Several military maneuvers, and especially dangerous overflights by the Russian Air Force have increased the tension in this region. While the Baltic States fear that Russia might be using Hybrid warfare in the Baltic States, by using the large ethnic Russian population in these states, it becomes clear that Russia has a focus away from the Baltic States.
Russia’s dangerous military provocations, which account for at least two near collisions between Russian Air Force jets and Swedish passenger liners, as well as the kidnapping of an Estonian border patrol agent and the alleged Russian submarines in Swedish and Finnish waters, have let to NATO focusing mainly on the Baltic States. Operation Atlantic Resolve further saw NATO commitment to the Baltic States by the regularly deployment of an US army brigade in this region. However, all this time Russia has been more and more active in interfering in the Balkans while drawing NATO’s attention towards the Baltic States.
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| Italian Typhoon jet stationed in Lithuania as part of NATO's Baltic Air Policing mission above the Baltic States |
It does seem very unlikely that Russia will make a move in the Baltic States any time soon. Most of its military attention is focused on Eastern Ukraine. The Baltic States are too concerned about their independence to tolerate any Russian influence on their territory and NATO’s Article 5 give them enough political and military back up. Even though Russia has enough opportunities to exercise Hybrid Warfare in the Baltic States, even if it were in some small ways, they will refrain from this given their difficult political situation as well as the fact that Russia would gain very little from meddling in the Baltic States.
Russia’s geopolitical aims are located in the Balkans and the Black Sea. This is largely due to historical reasons. Throughout its history Russia has always been interested in the Black Sea and the Balkans as a gateway towards the Mediterranean Sea. The seizure of Crimea, which Russia considers as its historical land, has more to do with the strategic location of the naval base of Sevastopol as a base for the Russian Black Sea Fleet then for political or economic reasons.
Russia also has several nations inside the Balkans that are either friendly or at least neutral towards Russia. Russia is in need of neutral and friendly countries for its trade, given the fact that the economic sanctions of the European Union (EU) are severely damaging Russia’s fragile economy. At the same time it gives Russia an opportunity to undermine NATO’s influence on the Balkan if it can demonstrate itself as the more powerful actor in this region.
Over the past several months Russia has already been undermining NATO’s coherency in this region, either by active political moves or by seizing the opportunities that arrived. Russia already moved to closer ties with Turkey after that country fell out of favor by the EU because of the authoritarian stance by its President Erdogan. Russia also managed to pressure Bulgaria into a more Russian friendly stance after the first months of the crisis in eastern Ukraine and it seized the moment to build a partnership with the new Greek socialist government, promising economic aid at better terms then the EU would provide.
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| After the elections the Greek Prime Minister Alex Tsipras was trying to get a better economic deal then the EU offered in order to save the economic situation in Greece |
Recently Russia has also shown concerns about the political situation in Macedonia and how the protests over there are instable to the region. Knowing that Russia is seeking allies or neutral countries for trade it comes as no surprise that it has taken an interest in Macedonia. Things are however becoming more interested when it is placed in a larger economical perspective.
Russia is currently engaged in building a new energy pipeline called the Turkish Stream Pipeline. The goal of this pipeline is to export gas through the Black Sea into Turkey and Greece. A further project would be to build a pipeline towards Albania and towards Italy. Another project would be to build a pipeline through Macedonia and Serbia towards Hungary. This pipeline will connect Gazprom with central European markets and at the same time circumvent Ukraine. Thus Russia would be able to pressure Ukraine with gas deals and threaten to cut the supply without hurting gas deliveries towards the European Union.
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| Russia's pipeline plans for south-eastern Europe |
This new pipeline through Macedonia and Serbia would also isolate a major energy player on the Balkans, namely Romania. Isolating Romania makes sense since the country is taking a very interesting view on the situation in eastern Ukraine. Romania is concerned about Russian influence spreading through Ukraine. The country borders Moldova where the Russians have stationed around 1.500 soldiers in the break-away region of Transnistria. If Russian influence grows in the region it might be possible that Russia seeks to use Transnistria as a way to station more troops closer to Romania. Indeed, part of NATO’s Operation Atlantic Resolve saw the deployment of US troops in Romania to curb the Russian influence in this region.
By isolating Romania from the central European energy markets, or at least be a major competitor in this region, it hopes to undermine Rumania’s economy. Should Romania lose energy contracts to Gazprom then the government would receive less money that can be spend on modernizing the Rumanian Armed Forces.
Conclusion
It remains unclear if Russia has a fully planned agenda on spreading its influence inside the European continent or if it is just reacting to new opportunities when they come along. It is however certain that after the crisis in eastern Ukraine that Russia has taken a more assertive stance in the Balkans.
The real driver for Russia’s geopolitical aims is to seek better access and influence in the Mediterranean Sea and it seizes the opportunities to spread its influence in Turkey, Greece and recently in Macedonia in order to accomplish this goal. In order to maintain a provider of natural gas to the European energy markets it is planning new pipelines in this region thereby circumventing Ukraine in order to gain leverage over this country without hurting the EU. A side effect of this energy strategy is that Russia is also in a position to undermine Rumania’s role as an energy supplier of central Europe, thereby isolating or undermining this country as well.
The aggressive stance in the Baltics comes in handy to divert NATO’s attention towards the Baltic Region and away from the Balkans. It also makes NATO less focused on Ukraine and more on the integrity of its members. By continuing this sabre rattling in the Baltic States it hopes to mask its intentions in the Balkans for as long as possible.
