the Baltics and Western Europe

Ever since the situation in Eastern Ukraine the Baltic States have become more and more uncertain about Russia’s intensions in the Baltic Region. The Baltic States have always feared that Russia wants to retake these three nations or at least have a certain degree of control over them. It does seem unlikely that Russia would act openly against these nations in the way that it does in Eastern Ukraine. All three nations are members of the European Union (EU) as well as NATO members. Any open aggression against these states would be met by NATO’s Article 5 of collective defense of the Alliance. As Russia lacks the means to beat NATO forces conventionally any open aggression originating from the Russian side would end catastrophic.

 

Since the start of the conflict in Ukraine however, Russia and NATO are more and more pitted against each other due to different political interests. Russia seeks to create a sort of buffer against what it perceives as an aggressive NATO expansion towards Russia’s borders. A western oriented Ukraine does form a severe security issue for Russia that is best countered by a pro Russia Eastern Ukraine that can act as the necessary buffer. In the center of its European border it is the nation of Belarus that creates this buffer. In the Baltic Region however, there is no such buffer.

NATO's eastward expansion

It is this reality that causes the Baltic States to be worried about the survival of their nations. Even though Russia can not afford to act overtly in this region without fearing to trigger Article 5 there are other, less overt options, Russia can employ, notably by influencing the large ethnic Russian population within these three nations.

 

Over the past several months Russia has been slowly testing the resolve of the NATO alliance by military provocations, most of them executed by Tu 95 strategic bombers patrolling the borders of the EU as well as several large scale military exercises at Kaliningrad and the alleged Russian submarines in Swedish and Finnish waters.

A Russian Tu-95 Bear bomber - Russia's main asset for provoking and
testing the resolve of the EU.

A certain degree of credible deterrence against Russia is needed in the Baltic Region to prevent Russia for acting irrational as well as to force Russia to comply with international rule. It is in the execution of this deterrence that a greater and more credible role for western European states is needed.

 

Several western European nations have decreased their armed forces over the past decade, driven by several budget restrictions over the past years as well as the general believe of safety and prosperity within the EU. Today, the prosperity of the EU is in doubt and instability reigns around the borders of the EU. As the balance of power within the world is shifting, with the EU losing its influence as a global player, the need for a stronger military power is needed in order to bring back stability in areas torn by conflict.

 

The Baltic States already do what they can to build deterrence on their own. Their small populations and economies don’t allow them to build a large enough military force to deter Russia enough. Joining NATO gives these states the protection of Article 5 but is it enough? The Baltic States lack the military power needed to deter Russia and they lack the space to trade space for time. A strong conventional military attack by Russia can overrun these three nations before NATO can send in enough military forces. As such, the military strength of the Baltic States needs to be increased by other nations.

 

Keen on keeping a positive image within NATO the Baltic States are complying with the requirements of the alliance. Their military budgets are amongst the highest in the alliance (as in percentage of GDP) and their political engagement is also high. The Baltic States hope that this positive image will translate into a NATO being more willing to support these three nations.

 

Within NATO it is however the United States that provides the bulk of the deterrence in this region. NATO missions like Atlantic Resolve consists of US military means being deployed in the Baltic Region to strengthen the Baltic States and aid to deter Russia. This however shows the major weakness of the alliance and Russia is aware of it.

Operation Atlantic Resolve includes the US rotating a brigade sized element
inside the Baltic States to assure these three nations

It seems that the EU still lacks the military means to fully defend its territory and certainly in most Western Europe member states there is a lack in political engagement to defend Eastern Europe. Russia is perceived to be far enough away to influence the security of Western Europe directly. As a result of this the United States still remains the only provider of a decent deterrence against Russia. Even when the United States are more and more engaged in the Pacific they still need to station a vast amount of troops inside the EU to deliver the necessary military power for NATO’s European member states. Even if the United States wishes to shrink their military presence in Europe, in favor of deploying troops in the Pacific, they can not commit to this as it would further weaken the EU on a military level.

 

This results in a vicious circle where EU member states don’t feel the need to invest in their military capabilities because they can always fall back on the military deployment of the United States inside Europe. And without a strong EU military might the United States can not afford to pull their troops out of Europe.

 

The situation in Eastern Ukraine already sparked the debate about strengthening the armies of Western Europe in face of instability and conflict around the borders of the EU. A stronger Western Europe would allow the United States to shrink the size of their troop deployment inside the EU without changing the balance of power between NATO and Russia and without sacrificing the carefully build up deterrence.

 

But even if Western Europe decides to increase its military strength it is far from certain if these new found military capabilities are going to be deployed against Russia. The major security issue at this moment for Western, and even Southern, Europe is the refugee crisis in the Mediterranean while situation of the Baltic States is of a second interest.

 

Conclusion

While Western Europe slowly is coming to terms with the reality that a stronger military power inside the EU is needed to confront the instability around the EU’s borders. This will suit the security needs of the Baltic States as a stronger EU will offer a bigger deterrence against Russia who feels threatened by NATO’s expansion towards the Russian borders. Russia seeks to have a buffer and finds this in the state of Belarus and a pro-Russian Ukraine. Only when it comes to the Baltic Region we see that Russia lacks the buffer it prefers.

 

The Baltic States do feel threatened that Russia might make a move in order to at least destabilize this region and curb NATO’s influence. As a result the Baltic States are trying to build up a strong and credible deterrence against Russia. Hampered by small populations and economies these countries lack the means to build strong armed forces and are thus looking for bigger NATO allies to provide additional security, notably the United States who is forced to defend the EU and NATO as the EU is missing the necessary military power and political commitment to take over this role of deterrence.

The situation in Eastern Ukraine sparked the debate inside Western Europe to reinvest in their military power but in the end this will have to be translated into a bigger strategic picture that does include the EU to take a bigger role in deterring Russia as well as provide security for the Baltic Region. However with other security issues at hand, like the refugee problem in the Mediterranean, it is doubtful if Western Europe will engage in the same commitment towards the Baltic Region as the United State currently does.