A very important feature of Hybrid War is control over information and especially the news. Being able to tell your version of the truth for as long as possible and to as many people as possible benefits in Hybrid War as the goal is to confuse and mislead your opponents for as long as possible. Information warfare and propaganda are usually the first phases of a Hybrid War being executed. Knowing how to counter this information war and turn it around successfully is a very important aspect in defending against this new kind of warfare.
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| Latvia's television tower in Riga |
No other countries are more in the lead then the Baltic States when it comes to countering this information war. All three Baltic States have large groups of ethnic Russians living in their borders. In the past, Russia used the fate of these ethnic Russians to justify Hybrid War in order to protect Russia civilians. The protection of these ethnic Russians by military means, as seen in Georgia in 2008 and recently in Ukraine, present the high level spectrum of Hybrid War. Influencing and propaganda are on the lower level of Hybrid War.
Russia has a lot to gain by influencing ethnic Russians living abroad. Spurred on by Russian controlled media these groups can be used to form opposition groups thereby complicating the political decision making system in the targeted countries. A further going example will be to inspire the ethnic Russians in the Baltic States to stand up and organize pro-Russian and anti-western demonstrations. By controlling the mind-set of these people Russia could also be able to influence official referendums. There is little doubt that the referendum in the Crimea was largely influenced by Russian propaganda painting a better future of ethnic Russians when they become part of Russia. Likewise it is Russian propaganda that spurred ethnic Russians on to stand up against what was described a far right fascist regime in Kiev that would neglect eastern Ukraine.
It is safe to say that any Russian moves inside the Baltic States will be preceded by a large information campaign. When it comes to this information war it is Russia that enjoys a very good starting position. In their eagerness to become independent the Baltic States revolted against everything that was Soviet/Russian. Russian language was no longer an official language and state television turned over to the national languages of the Baltic States. This left the ethnic Russian populations in the Baltic States with no other choice but to watch Russian television channels and thus they are easy accessible for any kind of Russian misinformation, influence and propaganda.
It is only recently with the events unfolding in Ukraine that we have a deeper understanding on how Hybrid War works and the important role that control over the media plays in this new type of warfare. The Baltic States are currently undertaking steps to counter Russia’s advantage in its abilities to engage in an information war.
Latvia already has created a state controlled television channel that broadcasts only in Russian. Their target are the ethnic Russians living in Latvia. An alternative media channel will allow the Latvian government to broadcast their version of the facts and counter Russian propaganda and misinformation, thus gaining influence over the ethnic Russian populations. The other Baltic States are best to follow this trend and create their own Russian language state controlled channels.
A major question would be on how to reach the ethnic Russian population and how to form a counterweight. The Russian television channels are described as good with a variety of shows and movies of a good quality. Any Baltic State equivalent has to be at least be able to offer the same quality. Already the Baltic States are trying to look in the possibilities of dubbing Scandinavian television programs and offer those as an alternative. Time will tell if this is the right approach.
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| NATO Strategic Communications Center of Excellence logo |
Meanwhile NATO is starting to get involved in this information warfare itself. The NATO’s strategic communications center of excellence is based in Latvia. This centre will be the place were future NATO personnel will get a thorough training on how to perform strategic communications. NATO is even going further and set up a NATOChannel office in Latvia aimed on creating video, audio and internet content for the alliance. This is the third NATOChannel office in the EU aside from Brussels and Spain. It is also the smallest NATOChannel with only 3 to 4 journalists.
Even as this is a small NATO contribution it does show how concerned NATO is when it comes to information war as part of Hybrid War. It also sends a clear signal towards Russia that misinformation and subversion inside the Baltic States will not be tolerated by NATO and whenever possible to be countered.
