In any hypothetical war in the Baltic Region no piece of land holds the same strategic value as the Swedish island of Gotland. This large island dominates sea routes running in the Baltic Sea and provides air bases to any party that holds the island. As such, Gotland plays an important part in the strategic planning of both Russia as NATO. At the same time it is Sweden who neglects the importance of Gotland.
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| Gotlands strategic position at the centre of the Baltic Sea |
The importance of Gotland can best be described by the fact that the Swedish government during the Cold War stationed an armoured brigade on the island. At the present day Gotland only houses a Home Guard battalion backed up by 14 tanks but without crews to operate them. The Swedish military leaders do want to strengthen Gotland and station at least a regiment on the island but budget cuts in military spending prevents this. Sweden plans to fly in troops should the island be attacked thus leaving the initial defence of the island to the Swedish Air Force and Navy. At the moment an invasion of Gotland seems unlikely as most Baltic Region countries are EU members, with the exception of Russia.
What makes Gotland so strategic is that it offers the capabilities to project power into the Baltic Sea. The Air Force base at Visby, Gotland has two paved runways of 2.000 metres while a small naval base exists in Västra.
To NATO Gotland is a strategic point where forces can be build up. Should Russia attack the Baltic States it seems likely that Russian forces would capture key infrastructure in these states before NATO has time to reinforce them. Taking back the Baltic States would require a build-up of troops as well as being able to gain air superiority and sea control. Though Gotland isn’t vital for these operations since they can be undertaken from bases in Poland and Germany. Gotland does offer a more advantageous and central locations to strike back as well as a base of operations to prepare and mount an amphibious operation with a short sailing time towards the Baltic States.
This strategic base is however denied to NATO as long as Sweden is a non-NATO member. It should never the less be noted that Sweden is a EU member and any EU military operation could make use of Gotland as a forward strategic base. Though it would seem unlikely that in the near future any military operation on the EU’s borders would be conducted under EU authority instead of under NATO authority. Especially given the fact that a fully working EU army is still a long ways off.
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| Swedish Grippen planes above Visby Harbor |
Gotland presents another story to Russia. As long as Sweden is neutral Gotland remains an island with little threat originating from it. Things change in a war against Sweden or where Sweden joins NATO. Gotland offers NATO the possibility to conduct operations against Russian forces more easily and finding a way to neutralize this island is important in Russia’s strategic planning.
Given the fact that Gotland is weakly defended and the Russia enjoys a vast majority in numbers it could try and occupy the island and deny its use to NATO. Such an action will be a declaration of war against Sweden who then most likely will join NATO, thus strengthening the NATO alliance. At the same time however a Russian occupied Gotland will strengthen Russia’s position in the Baltic Sea allowing it to intercept NATO aircraft on their way to the conflict zone in the Baltic States.
Conclusion
Gotland is and will remain an important strategic place in the Baltic Region in the event of a war. To NATO it offers and additional base to counter any Russian aggression. The fact that Gotland matters to NATO planning in the defence of the Baltic Region makes the island also important for Russia. In Russian hands it will secure Russia’s position in the Baltic Sea as well as give it bases to intercept any NATO movement inside the Baltic Sea and further isolate the Baltic States.
Gotland is weakly defended and a Russian invasion could be successful. Occupying Gotland however will drive Sweden in the NATO alliance, thus strengthening NATO. As long as Sweden is a non-NATO country the island remains neutral.
