In an earlier article we discussed how Belarus finds itself mostly in the Russian sphere of influence because of cultural and historical reasons but at the same time it is also known to make shifts towards the west.
A second article we discussed the fact that energy security is important for the Baltic States. The creation of the Nord Stream pipeline in the Baltic Sea, from Russia directly to Germany, isolated the Baltic States from gas deliveries but it also isolated Belarus at the same time.
In this article we will discuss how Belarus is not just a Russian puppet but a country bound for its survival. We will also discuss how cooperation between the Baltic States and Belarus will pull Belarus out of Russia’s sphere of influence and how at the same time energy security can be achieved for the Baltic States.
Belarus has a strong connection towards Russia on the base of cultural and historical reasons. But as we look at the political and economic reasons we can see that Belarus mostly strives to remain an independent nation. Survival of the regime in Minsk as well as the nation of Belarus is what drives the country. Because of the autocratic regime in Belarus, leaded by President Alexander Lukashenko, the country finds itself blocked by the west who value democracy and described Belarus as the last dictatorship in Europe.
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| President Lukashenko, often called Europe's last dictator |
Belarus had no other option but to turn to Russia for its survival. Russia gave Belarus several loans so that the country could survive and was at the same time the provider of oil and gas. Off course this lead to the fact that Belarus got pulled into Russia’s sphere of influence and without a counterweight it remains there.
Over the years Belarus became closer integrated with Russia up to the level that both countries cooperated military. Belarus became a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), an organisation that supposes to mimic the former Warsaw Pact.
For Russia Belarus is a very handy buffer state that protects most of Russia’s western border against, what Russia believes to be, NATO expansion to isolate Russia. It also allows Russia to free troops, otherwise engaged in defending the western border, to undertake military campaigns like the conflicts in Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea and eastern Ukraine. One can wonder how much military power Russia could wield for these campaigns if it had to guard its western borders.
Yet Belarus seeks to pursue its independent course. Its military cooperation with Russia does come at a price. In return for military support to Russia, Belarus receives energy deliveries, modern weapons, trade and political survival. In short terms, Belarus is acting like a mercenary nation, teaming up with those who offers it the most advantage deals.
It is important to realize this fact that Belarus seeks its own course. The relation with Russia is one of survival as the country was blocked from western markets. Belarus already had its fair share of troubles with Russia, mainly around 2009-2010, when Putin was replaced by Medvedev and President Lukashenko went into elections himself. Criticism by Lukashenko on Russia resulted in Russia increasing the oil and gas prizes for Belarus. The Russian regime hoped that this wold pressure Belarus so hard that the people would demand President Lukashenko to be replaced. As history tells us, this turned out differently than expected and President Lukashenko remained in power. Relations between Belarus and Russia remained troublesome since then.
At the same time Belarus started to look towards the west for aid and to pull free out of Russia’s sphere of influence. Belarus never burned its bridges with the west when it cooperated with Russia. We like to point out that likewise a Belarus in western sphere of influence will also remain ties with Russia. The country is looking for survival and can switch sides with whoever makes the best deals.
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| President Alexander Lukashenko and President Dalia Grybauskaité meeting in Vilnius in 2009 |
Belarus and Russia still have troubled relations and Belarus is keen on playing both the west, namely the EU, and Russia against each other. By flirting with the EU it can pressure Russia to give Belarus what it wants. Statements by President Lukashenko even went that far as to state that he even could allow NATO to operate bases in Belarus thus creating a serious security risk for Russia. Although Belarus has no intention to join NATO, this statement was aimed to pressure Russia.
A Belarus that is more western minded can be exploited and will be advantageous on several levels. Belarus holds the key on solving the energy problem of the Baltic States and at the same time Belarus can be pulled out of Russia’s influence. The overall result is that Russia has less soft power it can use to pressure the Baltic States.
Belarus has good relations with Venezuela and notably Iran. In the case of its relation with Iran, Belarus is working jointly in exploiting Iranian oil fields. Belarus is dependent on foreign oil and gas to keep its economy going. Russia has proven over the years to be a difficult provider and even willing to pressure Belarus by changing the price it demands for energy deliveries. The construction of the Nord Stream pipeline didn’t just isolated the Baltic States, it also bypassed Belarus. So Belarus needs to find a different supplier of energy if it wants to remain independent of Russia.
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| Nord Stream pipeline bypasses the Baltic States and Belarus |
Belarus has access to oil from Venezuela and Iran but as a landlocked nation it can not import it. This is where the Baltic States come in. These countries can aid Belarus by offering their ports and transportation networks. At the same time the Baltic States can use Belarus as their own middle man to get oil and gas deliveries from Iran and Venezuela themselves without a direct link. Already in 2009 President Lukashenko visited Lithuania and Latvia. Part of the talks were on energy security. The building of a sea terminal for liquid gas in Lithuania was set out during a meeting with Belarus in the fall off 2010. Latvia promised that the use of Latvian ports and railroads were always an option for Belarus and that Latvian businessmen in Ventspils and Riga were interested in joint projects. Belarus plays the game well and stated that Iranian and Venezuelan oil will flow there were the conditions are the most advantageous (for Belarus).
The net result of a cooperation between Belarus and the Baltic States would be that they will become less dependent on Russia for their energy supplies. Cooperation between the Baltic States and Belarus will further pull Belarus in the European sphere of influence but most importantly, out of Russia’s sphere of influence. Without a strong Belarus on its side Russia will be forced to defend its western border and thereby diminishing the troops it can use for interventions elsewhere. A more western minded Belarus will also decrease tensions with Poland, allowing the Polish Army to take a more relaxed stance.
