Two weeks ago Sweden surprised the Baltic region by signing a defence treaty with Finland. This treaty allows for both countries to assist each other in the case of a war as well as the creation of a joint naval task force and the mutual use of each other’s naval bases. There was little doubt that this treaty was aimed as a deterrent measure against Russia whom many Baltic nations view as being aggressive.
Now, two weeks later, Sweden has made a similar deal with its neighbour Denmark. This time however the treaty with Denmark not only includes mutual access into each other’s waters but also concerns extended cooperation in the air.
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| Swedish Armed forces during an exercise |
Motives for the anti-Russia coalition
There is little doubt that this new treaty is also aimed against Russia. Over the past years the Russian armed forces have been acting aggressive and sometimes recklessly towards Sweden. In April 2013 the Russian Air Force has been simulating bombing runs against Stockholm while the sightings of an unknown vessel in Swedish territorial waters in October 2014 was thought to be a Russian submarine. And in December a Russian Air Force jet, flying without a transponder, almost collided with a passenger jet.
Sweden starts to feels itself threatened by Russia but it finds itself in a weak position. Sweden is not an NATO member and as such cannot call upon Article 5 for a mutual defence of the Swedish nation. Although Sweden is a EU member this does not give the same level of protection as NATO can offer. The concept of the EU Battle Groups are well known and already in place for some years but a unified EU army or even a heightened military cooperation inside the EU are still relatively new projects that will require years before being fully operational.
It didn’t come as a surprise that Sweden first made a treaty with Finland. Both countries are not a member of NATO but have the same security issue’s, namely an aggressive Russia. The treaty with Denmark did come as a surprise but it is not aimed to pull Sweden into NATO. Public opinion inside Sweden for joining NATO has been on the rise. A January 2015 poll showed that 33% of the country now favours joining the alliance. This is an increase of 5% compared to a year before.
Working together with Denmark seems obvious. The Denmark Strait is the only entrance and exit to the Baltic Sea, aside from the Kiel Canal in Germany. Sweden will now have a better understanding of Russia’s military movements in this region thanks to Denmark sharing information about movements at sea and in the air.
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| Danish armed forces |
Future expansion of the Swedish coalition?
Sweden managed to sign military treaties in just a timeframe of two weeks. The speed of how fast these treaties were signed not only demonstrates how serious Sweden is about its military position in the Baltic Region but also shows the willingness of both Finland and Denmark to cooperate with Sweden to strengthen their weak military position as well in order to deter Russia’s aggressive movements.
One wonders if Sweden plans to expand its military coordination with other countries. Already the Swedish Defence Minister Peter Hultqvist mentioned that “the cooperation with Denmark is a part of closer cooperation with our Nordic neighbors, which strengthens security in our region”
“Partnerships with the Nordic countries are completely natural because they are our neighboring countries and we are all part of Nordefco [Nordic Defense Cooperation]” - Peter Hultqvist
It is interesting to notice that Sweden is looking to other Nordic countries to improve the security issues of the Baltic Region. These Nordic countries include Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden. Given the fact that Iceland lacks any military capacity it will be most probable that Sweden will now try to create a defence treaty with Norway.
Meanwhile there are also other nations in the Baltic Region that fear Russia’s aggressive movements even more then Sweden does. The Baltic States each have weak military forces compared to Russia’s Army. It will be interesting to see what Sweden will do in the next months when it comes to security issues of the Baltic Region as a whole. So far Sweden has only taken steps that increases the Swedish national security but the side effect of these treaties is that Sweden is becoming more involved in the Baltic Region.
Should Sweden decide to take a more overt and leading role in the Baltic Region then it will have to take in account the Baltic States as potential allies. At the same time the Baltic States should look for their own military treaties with Sweden in order to deter Russia even more in the Baltic Region. A lot will depend however on the political course Sweden is going. Sweden is well known for its neutrality but in the recent years this neutrality has been compromised by aggressive Russian military moves. Although Sweden is not yet considering in joining NATO is slowly gets pulled into the NATO security problems of this region.
These Swedish led military cooperation’s are also beneficial for the EU as it provides a new framework between EU member states to cooperate together. The results of these military cooperation’s can serve as valuable lessons to be used to strengthen future military cooperation’s between EU member states. As we mentioned in an earlier post, the Swedish-Finnish joint naval task force can draw valuable lessons from the Belgian-Dutch naval cooperation in order to get a better start.
