Finland, together with Sweden, are the only two countries in the Baltic Region that aren’t a member of NATO. Both countries also have a neutrality policy when it comes to NATO versus Russia. Finland makes for a strange case. Although it wishes to remain its neutrality by not joining NATO but with good relations with both NATO and Russia. But how feasible is it for Finland to remain neutral and doesn’t the country run the risk to be forced to make a stand sooner or later?
The deployment of 3.000 US troops to Latvia and Estonia as part of Operation Atlantic Resolve is a major concern for Finland. Finnish Foreign Affairs Minister Erkki Tuomioja recently voiced his frustration over the build-up of NATO military forces in the Baltics. The build-up of NATO forces in the Baltics might be logic but at the same time might be sending the wrong message as it gives Russia the feeling that it is surrounded.
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| NATO exercise in Lithuania |
But is Finland indeed right with her point of view and doesn’t outside events drag the country in another direction? Russia recently reopened a military base close to the Finnish border as part of its arctic strategy and the latest military exercises in Russia’s northwest region of Murmansk. Although this exercise is in the Arctic region it comes just after NATO started its exercise Operation Atlantic Resolve” in the Baltic Region and is thus a political and military reaction against the NATO exercise. Parts of this exercise are being held close to the Finnish border.
So even while Finland remains neutral it can’t escape the outside events that are taking place. Russian troops exercising close to the Finnish border as well as the recent opening of a new base near the Finnish border are part of a larger strategy namely responding to a NATO exercise as strengthening the Russian position in the Arctic. Still, these are just small signs that the region is changing and becoming more militarized.
And this militarization, although not aimed at Finland itself, still is troublesome for Finland. It recently signed a military treaty with Sweden for mutual assistance and the creation of a joint naval command. This treaty helps secure Finland of military assistance in times of emergency but for Sweden it is a move to find allies whom can help deter Russia’s ambitions in the Baltic Region.
Finland also signed a NATO Host Nation agreement allowing the assistance of NATO forces in Finland in emergency situations. So even while Finland struggles to maintain its neutrality it is already tilting away from Russia and looking to NATO and Sweden for assurance. It should be noted that this is still a tilt and not a shift. In a recent poll 54 percent of the Finnish population is against joining NATO against only 12 percent pro.
It therefor seems unlikely that Finland will be joining NATO and continues to walk a fine line between NATO and Russia. Finland is hoping that its neutrality will prevail and therefore doesn’t want to make too much moves that could offend Russia. But even with this policy of neutrality Finland is tilting towards Sweden NATO to assure its position as Russia becomes more and more assertive.
