Security comes in many forms and is not always related to military security. Equally important for the survival of any state is the ability to secure its economic interests as well as its supply of energy to keep its economy and society working. A steady an uninterrupted supply of energy, either in the form of oil, gas or electricity, is thus an important factor.
When it comes to energy security in the three Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania the situation doesn’t look all to bright. These three countries depend a lot on energy supplies coming out of Russia. When we look at the events in Ukraine in the past years it is clear that a total dependency on Russian energy supplies is fatal for a country both at the economic and political level.
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| The Nord Stream pipeline allows the EU to be supplied and thus further isolates the Baltic States |
The Ukraine situation
Ukraine found itself totally depended on Russian energy supplies. This led to several troublesome situation in which Russia managed to coerce Ukraine in doing what Russia wanted it to do.
First, Russia was free to set the price of the oil and gas it delivered to the Ukraine. Failure to pay these prices led to an interruption of energy supply to Ukraine. This gave Russia a huge leverage over both the economy of Ukraine as well as the power to blackmail the government of Ukraine. This power was somehow curbed by the fact that Russia also supplied vast parts of the European Union (EU) with the pipelines running through the Ukraine. Although there are several other pipelines that can be used to keep the EU supplied of oil and gas, any interruption at Ukraine would have an impact on the supply of the EU nevertheless.
So punishing Ukraine by interrupting the energy supplies has a negative impact on the supplies of the EU. At some cases this could be used to pressure Ukraine both by Russia as well as an energy depended EU to accept Russia’s demands. Without having to use any military power, Russia had major leverage on Ukraine through its soft economic power, namely energy supply. Influencing and coercing countries without a show of force also happens to be a part of hybrid war, the kind of war Russia has used successfully so far to take the Crimea and create a stalemate in eastern Ukraine.
The Baltic situation
The Baltic States find themselves in a similar position as Ukraine. These countries are totally dependent on energy supplies coming from Russia. This gives Russia the same opportunities to coerce the Baltic States at the same level as it could coerce Ukraine. The only difference is however that the Baltic States are EU territory and cutting energy supplies directly and without little warning would prompt a strong EU response.
Russia already managed to isolate the Baltic States completely. The creation of the Nord Stream pipeline running through the Baltic Sea connects Russia directly with Germany. This pipeline allows Russia to cut gas supplies to the Baltic States but still supply the rest of the EU. Russia therefor can make its differences with the Baltic States, on the energy level, look like a local incident while still supplying other EU members so they won’t intervene.
The need for energy security
The Baltic States thus must find a way to secure their energy supplies and become less dependent on Russia. All three states can find themselves in a stronger strategic position by breaking the Russian monopoly on energy supply in the Baltic States. Already the first steps are taken.
The Baltic States, together with the Nordic and Visegrad countries have expressed the idea of creating a EU energy union. The aim is to create one big energy market inside the EU so that energy supply inside the EU can be better regulated between countries. Countries creating a surplus of energy could then more easily transport this energy to other members in need of energy.
The creation of an energy union will strengthen the EU not only economically but also politically. It allows the EU to have a greater influence over its member states as well as having a tool to counter Russia’s coercive methods.
The creation of an energy union inside the EU is a good idea but it will not solve the energy security of the Baltic States. First, the EU as a whole depends a lot on Russia gas supplies and secondly the Baltic States are in an exposed position making the transfer of power and energy difficult.
A better option is that the Baltic States look for ways to secure their energy supply themselves, either with help of the EU. Already the first steps are taken. On October 27th Lithuania welcomed the arrival of the FRSU Independence at the Baltic Sea port of Klaipeda. The FRSU Independence is a liquefied natural gas terminal that is capable to transport 80% of the consumption of gas in the Baltic States. However deliveries to Latvia and Estonia can only be done once the existing pipelines are upgraded. This expected to be done by the end of 2015.
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| FRSU Independence, a strategic asset in freeing the Baltic States from Russian gas |
It is unknown what the turnaround time of the FRSU Independence is. Once unloaded it will have to be refilled, most likely in Norway, before delivering a new amount to the Baltic States. The FRSU Independence does allow to bridge a period should Russia decide to cut gas deliveries to the Baltic States. It is therefore important that Latvia and Estonia also seek an alternative supply of gas aside from Russia or invest in other forms of energy themselves.
Conclusion
The Baltic States, just like Ukraine, find themselves totally depended on Russia energy deliveries. This gives Russia a lot of economic and political power to coerce the Baltic States. The creation of the Nord Stream pipeline in the Baltic Sea further isolated the Baltic States allowing Russia to potentially cut energy supplies while still being able to deliver energy to the other EU members.
Becoming les depended on Russian energy supplies is vital for the Baltic States and will increase their strategic position and make them more independent from Russia. The creation of an EU energy union is a good alternative as it allows surpluses of energy inside the EU to be more easily routed to area’s that are in need of it. Still, an energy union has its limits and a better option would be for the three Baltic States to find either an alternative supplier of gas or invest in new forms of energy production in order to become less dependent on Russian gas.
