The Baltic States continue to feel threatened as tensions rise between NATO and Russia over the situation in eastern Ukraine. They fear that a more aggressive Russia might one day try to take back the Baltic States as part of a larger Russia.
Lithuania has been making many efforts to strengthen her position against Russian aggression. Earlier efforts were mainly related to soft power. The opening of a new LNG terminal on 3 December 2014 served to break Lithuania’s dependence on Russian Gas. A manual for civilians telling them how to organise themselves in the case of a Russian occupation.
But Lithuania not only organises herself in the field of soft power, it also is working hard to increase its military power. As such the Lithuanian government has agreed to impose military conscription in an effort to increase military recruitment. This moves is aimed to make sure that the Lithuanian army remains fully staffed in order to pose a bigger deterrent against Russia.
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| Lithuanian soldiers during a summer exercise |
The decision of reintroducing conscription comes at the same time of a military setback for Lithuania. Earlier this week Lithuania tried to obtain German made Boxer armoured fighting vehicles (AFV) in order to upgrade the mechanised forces of the Lithuanian army. Unfortunally for Lithuania, Germany decided to reject the Lithuanian request. The German government decided that it needs the Boxer AFVs themselves in order to maintain the capabilities of the German Army. Earlier reports cited that the German Army is operating with substandard material and even had to resort in using broomsticks to simulate machineguns during training exercises.
On the short term side and in the NATO context it is Lithuania that needs these vehicles more than Germany in order to build up its military deterrent against Russia. If we look however on the long term perspective we can argue that a strong German army that is committed to aid the Baltic States, as well as back up Poland, in case of a Russian aggression would be a bigger deterrent but reorganizing the German army will take several years.
One must wonder how big a threat a Russian invasion of Lithuania is. The country holds no direct borders with Russia aside from the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. Any Russian invasion would first have to go through Latvia in order to reach Lithuania. This scenario is off course only true if Belarus denies any Russian troop movements on its territory. Should Russian forces be allowed to operate out of Belarus, and thus dragging Belarus into a large conflict, the situation for Lithuania is desperate. The capital Vilnius is close to the Belarussian border and can be quickly taken by Russian armed forces.
All three Baltic States have small economies and populations, making it impossible to form large armies. In the face of Russian aggression and the fears of a Russian invasion these countries are looking for ways to strengthen their armed forces in order to build a credible deterrent. In the case of Lithuania these ways involve the reintroduction of conscription in an effort to preserve its military strength. At the same time the plans to modernise the Lithuanian army with new AFVs have been halted, meaning that Lithuania has to look to other countries for acquiring AFVs.
