The country of Belarus itself is not a part of what is considered as the Baltic Region. The country does however share borders with Poland and Lithuania and is a close ally with Russia. Although the security issues imposed by Belarus are more the domain Eastern European security it would be bad to ignore the impact Belarus has on the Baltic Region.
Belarus is governed by President Alexander Lukashenko since 1994. President Lukashenko continued most of the practices of the former Soviet government and most parts of the economy are still state owned. Freedom of press as almost non-existent and neither are the elections truly democratic. Belarus is in effect a dictatorship with a Soviet Union system of government and economy.
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| President Alexander Lukashenko |
The population consists mainly of Belarusians and there is a small Russian minority. The country of Belarus is historically and culturally more connected with Russia then with other surrounding countries. As such it doesn’t come as a surprise that Belarus is inside Russia’s sphere of influence and is unlikely to come out of it. The country depends heavily on Russia for the delivery of oil and gas and in terms its export is directed towards Russia. Russia is the number one export partner of Belarus with about 50% of its exports. One third of the exports however are going to the European Union (EU) and this makes the EU the second trading partner of Belarus.
This places Belarus in a unique position. Although Belarus, and especially President Lukashenko, favours Russia it has strong connections with the EU. As such it is capable of playing the EU and Russia against each other for favourable economic deals. This was recently the case when President Lukashenko declared that it was seeking closer ties with the west, meaning the EU. Although President Lukashenko never wanted to break free of Russia’s influence and support, it was aiming of putting pressure on the Putin regime for economic deals. Russia, fearful of losing the vital ally of Belarus, had no other choice but to come forth.
Another example of how important Belarus is for Russia, besides the production of food and heavy machinery is the ability to bypass the EU sanctions against Russia. When these sanctions were taken it was Belarus who bought large amounts of the banned products and sold them to Russia in order to compensate the impact of the sanctions. Although this move lessened the EU sanctions to a certain degree, it still wasn’t enough for keeping the Russian economy, and especially its food market, stable.
When it comes to the impact Belarus has on the security of Eastern Europe and the Baltic Region things are less optimistic. As Belarus is a strong ally of Russia, and the Putin regime, it poses a large security risk for the EU. Belarus has an army that consists of 27.000 soldiers and an air force of 16.000 personnel. Most of the military equipment of the armed force are leftovers from the Soviet Union and modernisation is going on in a very slow pace.
Belarus therefor looks at Russia as the military power to guarantee its independence. As a result of this Belarus is in several military alliances with Russia like the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). As such it allows Russian forces to be stationed inside the country. Russia already uses air forces bases inside Belarus to monitor the air activity of NATO’s Baltic Air Policing missions and land forces were stationed inside Belarus to create another threat for Ukraine, namely a Russian invasion into northern Ukraine.
Belarus also participates in several military exercises with Russia and we can assume that both countries know how to operate their armies together. Russia is also responsible of supplying Belarus with its military equipment although this happens at a slow pace and most of the Belarussian army lacks modern equipment. Russia is however placing S-300 air defence systems inside Belarus to protect it from air strikes.
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| Belarussian and Russian soldiers parade together after a joint military exercise |
Poland already recognized the importance of Belarus for any Russian incursion inside Eastern Europe should things ever escalate. Most of the Polish army bases are located at the German border which at the time of their construction made sense. Poland was in those days a member of the Soviet Union and the main military threat were NATO forces in Western Europe. Today Russia and Belarus form the threat for Poland and the country is now rebuilding new army bases closer to the border with Belarus as a military deterrent.
Lithuania is in an even worse position as the border with Belarus is dangerously close to its capital, the city of Vilnius. The same can be said of the city of Daugavpils in Latvia that is also close to the Belarussian border. As for Russian military planners an ally like Belarus is valuable as it offers opportunities to bind the Polish armed forces while at the same time provide a springboard for an attack against some major cities in Lithuania and Latvia.
Although Belarus seems a menacing country there are some reassurances about its stance. Although Belarus is an army and allied to Russia there have been no signs so far that Belarus will actively aid any Russian aggression against the Baltic Region. Russian troops can be stationed inside Belarus to create a virtual attrition of Polish, Lithuanian and Latvian armed forces.
The population of Belarus is realizing that living standards in Eastern Europe have been increased because of the EU. As such these people are looking for a better stance between Russia and the EU in order to increase trade and rejuvenate the economy in order to create a better life inside Belarus. One must also take in account the fact that President Lukashenko has been in power for 20 years and runs the country as a Soviet dictator. State media can change the mood of the majority of the people on how to think about this through propaganda but there will be a moment when the people demand better ties with the EU. This raises question about how sincere Belarus was about seeking better ties with the EU. Surely a better economic deal with Russia was envisioned but at the same time it created the idea that Belarus was distancing itself from Russia and the economic collapse as a result of the EU embargo. But at the same time it could be used a way to satisfy the wishes of the people to get the economic benefit of doing business with the EU.
One must always keep in mind that Belarus and its populace view themselves as close relatives to the Russians. This historically and cultural fact cannot be replaced and Belarus will always be an ally to Russia. Russia will likewise look after its ally with a keen interest and make sure that Belarus stays in the Russian sphere of influence. Western support for non-government organisations aiming to topple President Lukashenko and bringing in more democracy in Belarussian politics will be met resolute by Russia. When it comes to Belarus, any attempts to influence this country from the outside can create a strong reaction of Russia; stronger then has been seen up to date in the Ukraine. Unless Belarus decides to go its own way and truly seeks better ties with the EU and NATO it will remain a security issue for Eastern Europe and the Baltic Region because of its extensive alliance with Russia, both economically and military.
