Russia’s new military doctrine was signed on December 26th and with it are some unwelcome changes for the Baltic Region. In this document Russia announced that three geographic areas are to be given priority. These three areas are the Arctic Region, Crimea and Kaliningrad. The Arctic Region did not came as a surprise as talks about Russia’s militarisation of this region has been going on for several years. Crimea also made sense as this area has a huge geostrategic value for Russia’s naval operations in the Black Sea and Mediterranean. Strengthening the Kaliningrad region was an expected move since Russia is at odds with NATO ever since the crisis in the Ukraine.
The Kaliningrad region is located between Lithuania and Poland and is an excellent position to threaten the west. Russia already deploys short-range Iskander missiles in the country’s west since the end of 2012. The operational range of these missiles are around 400-500km. Kaliningrad also hosts Russia’s Baltic Fleet and as such it has many shipyards to repair and build Russian warships. The the Chernyakhovsk and Donskoye air bases are being used to execute air incursions into NATO airspace, especially into the Baltic States. It is also rumoured that Russia stockpiles nuclear weapons into the Kaliningrad region.
Talks of strengthening the Kaliningrad region will have several consequences, especially for Lithuania. In May 2014 Russia cancelled the agreement that let Lithuania and Russia inspect each other military forces and in December 2014 Lithuania ordered its forces in an higher state of alert after Russia decided to hold military exercises in the region.
Strengthening Kaliningrad will create a stronger Russian southern flank in case of a war between Russia and the Baltic States. A Russian invasion of the Baltic States is something that all three Baltic States fear, although it seems unlikely at the moment that Russia has any plans to invade the Baltic States. All three Baltic States have a Russian minority living in their borders and they fear a same scenario that the Russians used to justify military operations in Georgia, Crimea and the eastern Ukraine.
A stronger Kaliningrad region is also a major problem for Poland. Poland recently decided that it wants to replace its major military bases on the border with Belarus. At the moment most of these bases are at the German border, a result from the Cold War when western Europa was the enemy. Poland wants to place the majority of its military forces on the border with Belarus, an ally of Russia and the shortest invasion route through eastern Europe.
Poland also has placed troops in the south at the border of the Ukraine in order to keep an eye on the raging conflict as well as to be able to intervene directly should it be required.
A stronger Kaliningrad opens a new area of attention that needs to be covered by army troops. Thus the Polish Army is becoming spread out in three directions, a situation that has a negative impact on the defence of the European Union’s eastern borders.
Surprisingly however, Belarus made a recent statement that it is looking for better ties with the EU. Although Belarus still claims to be a loyal ally that will not be a traitor to Russia. Still, the shift comes as a surprise. It is possible that President Lukashenko wants to play the EU and Russia against each other to see who can offer the best deal. At the same time the regime in Belarus is aware that under the current political situation where Russia is at odds with the West that it are Russia’s partners in regional trade that are suffering as well under the economic sanctions directed against Russia.
Russia’s influence in the Baltic Region goes even further then just Kaliningrad. In an effort to strengthen the Arctic Region it has reopened a military base at Alakurtti at only 50km of the Finnish border. The base can house up to 3.000 Russian servicemen. Finland however has been doubting to whether or not it should join NATO but so far decided to be neutral as not to provoke Russia. Finland however has declared recently that it seeks a better military cooperation with Sweden, one of the most important military actors in the Baltic Region. Russia’s move to place troops so close to the Finnish border might in the end be another small push that makes Finland look to the West and NATO membership.
