NATO’s Baltic Air Policing (BAP) mission went into its 37th rotation at the beginning of 2015. The responsibility of executing the BAP mission was handed over by the Portuguese Air Force to the Italian Air Force. After a decade of BAP missions it seems clear that the NATO mission is in need of an evaluation.
2014 was a busy years when it came to policing the airspace above the Baltic States. Russian aircraft intercepting this airspace are nothing new but 2014 saw things going to a new level. The current situation in Ukraine has putted NATO and Russia more against each other than in the past years. The Russians augmented their incrustations in the Baltic airspace in an effort to test NATO’s commitment and resolve. It became clear to all that NATO’s BAP mission is severely undermanned and lacks the military power necessary to deter the Russians.
NATO’s BAP mission is normally executed by just four aircraft. These four have to defend a territory that compromises 175,12 km2. Defending such a large territory with just four fighter jets is practically impossible in a time of crisis. NATO’s BAP mission was there for strengthened in 2014 by four Canadian CF-188 aircraft. These eight aircraft operated out of the Šiauliai Air Base in Lithuania Germany and the Netherlands also contributed to the mission. The Germans operated out of Ämari Air Base in Estonia and the Dutch from Malbork in Poland.
The assistance by the Canadians, the Germans and the Dutch show that NATO is still committed in protecting the sovereignty of the Baltic States and that it will increase its air forces in this region if the situation requires it.
Even with this increase in the amount of NATO airplanes it still wasn’t enough to stop the Russians from trying to test NATO’s commitment, response times and procedures. The Russians even went as far as sending in fully armed aircraft into the Baltic airspace. Regular aircraft movement between airbases in Russia and the Kaliningrad enclave are also a source of concern. These planes fly over the Baltic Sea but in most cases they fly without transponders and as such pose a major threat to civilian aircraft. Russian aircraft nearly collided with Swedish passenger aircraft on two occasions in 2014.
Aside from interceptor aircraft Russia also used strategic bombers to intrude the Baltic Airspace and lyushin Il-20 Coot-A aircraft regular pass the edges of the Baltic airspace. Designed for SIGINT duties the IL-20 carries sensors and arrays to perform ELINT, COMINT, optical and radar intelligence.
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| Russian Su-27 intercepted by a RAF Typhoon. Situations like these have been increasing throughout 2014 over the Baltic States |
The Baltic States still form the testing ground between NATO’s resolve to protect its allies and Russian attempts to flex its muscles. All three Baltic States have large Russian minority groups in their countries and they all lack the military numbers to deter the Russian Armed Forces. The Baltic States feel themselves very vulnerable and they for another ideal place for Russia to test its concept of secret war (also called 5thgeneration warfare). Earlier attempts of Russia to secure territory abroad, inhabited by Russian minority groups, have been seen in Georgia in 2008 and in the Ukraine in 2014. Russia already has experience in how to undermine countries from within in order to justify a military involvement. Georgia and the Ukraine weren’t NATO or EU members but Russia still views the Baltic States as vital for its own security. It seems unlikely that Russia will provoke the Baltic States, and therefore the EU and NATO, too much in fear of a power response. Already the economic sanctions by the EU have crippling effects on Russia’s economy.
Still, NATO has made a commitment regarding the integrity of the Baltic States and shows no signs of abandoning its members. The BAP mission was originally designed to be executed by four aircraft and was more a symbolic token. With the current crisis in the Ukraine still being unresolved and with an increase of Russian military activity inside or at the edges of the Baltic States this is all changed. The 37th rotation will maintain its increased numbers of aircraft in the Baltic States. Other NATO members also join this rotation. The Italian Air Force has taken overall command and replaced the Portuguese aircraft. At the same time the Spanish Air Force has taken over from the Germans and they also keep operating out of Estonia. The Dutch aircraft in Poland are planned to be relieved by the Belgian Air Force.
