Russia’s current economic crisis will have a profound negative impact on its military build-up and modernisation. This year alone the Russia state will be spending 3.3 trillion roubles to its armed forces. Over the next five years, over the 2015-2020 timeframe, Russia planned to spend in total up to 20 trillion roubles or an average of 4 trillion rouble each year. It has set the ambitious goals to modernize up to 70% of its military equipment and create a more modern Russian army.
Russia’s expenses on its armed forces totalled 4,1% of tis GDP in 2013. Although both the United States of America and China spend more money in total then Russia does, the burden is less for them. The USA spends 3,8 % of its GDP and China only 2%.
Spending 4,1% of the GDP and embark on a massive modernisation of the armed forces can only be done on a thriving economy. Low energy prices on the world markets, coupled by the economic sanctions imposed by the West, have the Russian economy going for a recession. Without the thriving economy Russia will no longer have the funds available to meet its original goals. Most likely some parts of the modernisation plans will be cancelled or at least be heavily delayed. Continuing to invest 20 trillion roubles in the armed forces the next five years would place a massive burden on the Russian economy and even lead it to a collapse.
So if Russia will be forced to downscale its military modernisation, will this be good news for the security of the Baltic region? Most likely not.
Russia is still at odds with the EU and NATO over the situation in the Ukraine. So Russia feels that it needs strong and modern forces, mainly on the European continent to stand up on what it perceives as NATO aggression aimed to undermine Russia’s international position. Not only are strong forces needed in the southern part of the European continent, Ukraine, but along the entire European border.
Russia benefits that it has a good cooperation with Kazakhstan in Central Asia and China in the Pacific. Russia’s role in the Pacific will only fall on its Pacific Fleet and its air force to show the flag, although the Pacific will in the next decades become an area in which China and the US will be the only two major forces. Russia will play a secondary role in this area just like Japan and South Korea will.
Its close cooperation with Kazakhstan means that Russia has no need for a strong and modern military force in Central Asia. As such, military forces in the Pacific and Central Asia will have a low priority for modernisation.
Russia also want to claim large parts of the Arctic region and has been accused to start a militarisation in this area. Since Russia’s claims are mainly contested by Denmark, Norway and Canada; there is no reel need for the deployment of a large amount of forces to take a military lead against these countries.
In conclusion we can state that Russia will continue to modernise its armed forces in the next year, even with an economy going into recession. The economic reality however will force the Russian government to change its plans and scale down its objectives. The focus and priority however will still be on troops based and deployed on the European continent. As far as the Baltic region is concerned, Russia will continue to modernise and become a more dangerous military foe in the next couple of years.
Source: http://uk.businessinsider.com/putins-grand-military-upgrade-has-hit-a-snag-2014-12?r=US